The Cooler

A case on CSGORoll, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.

Price

$43.98

62.83 coins

Advertised RTP

90.92%

EV $39.99 from 10 items

Observed RTP, 30d

82.01%

226 openings, odds method

Variance

1.6×

of price², per opening

Tail share

31.0%

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

65.0%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

10 openings · below min

7 days

82.88%±17.05218 openings

30 days

82.01%±16.75226 openings

since tracking started

82.01%±16.75226 openings

-0.5%50.5%101.5%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	10	21.67%±79.3	—	odds
7d	218	82.88%±17.0	−0.9σ	odds
30d	226	82.01%±16.7	−1.0σ	odds
All	226	82.01%±16.7	−1.0σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values10 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 226 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
Glock-18 \| Twilight Galaxy (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 100	$402 574 coins	10.0%	3	2.3	1.33×
AK-47 \| Neon Revolution (Minimal Wear)weapon · red	1 in 17	$109 155 coins	16.3%	12	13.6	0.88×
Tec-9 \| Terrace (Factory New)weapon · mil spec	1 in 100	$96.60 138 coins	2.4%	2	2.3	0.88×
USP-S \| Neo-Noir (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	23.0%	$95.20 136 coins	54.8%	44	52.0	0.85×
M4A4 \| Bullet Rain (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 67	$77.70 111 coins	2.9%	1	3.4	0.29×
USP-S \| Kill Confirmed (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 40	$56.39 80.56 coins	3.5%	8	5.7	1.42×
AK-47 \| Frontside Misty (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 14	$25.70 36.72 coins	4.5%	14	15.8	0.88×
AK-47 \| Orbit Mk01 (Battle-Scarred)weapon · restricted	10.0%	$22.16 31.66 coins	5.5%	17	22.6	0.75×
PP-Bizon \| Sand Dashed (Field-Tested)weapon · consumer	25.0%	$0.01 0.02 coins	0.0%	78	56.5	1.38×
MP9 \| Sand Dashed (Field-Tested)weapon · consumer	23.0%	<$0.01 0.01 coins	0.0%	47	52.0	0.90×

Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate, 11 Nov, 14:28 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

PP-Bizon | Sand Dashed (Field-Tested)weapon · consumerCappeSGOD♛$43.9862.83 coins$0.010.02 coins0.00x6h

PP-Bizon | Sand Dashed (Field-Tested)weapon · consumer$43.9862.83 coins$0.010.02 coins0.00x6h

MP9 | Sand Dashed (Field-Tested)weapon · consumer$43.9862.83 coins<$0.010.01 coins0.00x6h

PP-Bizon | Sand Dashed (Field-Tested)weapon · consumer$43.9862.83 coins$0.010.02 coins0.00x6h

MP9 | Sand Dashed (Field-Tested)weapon · consumer$43.9862.83 coins<$0.010.01 coins0.00x6h

PP-Bizon | Sand Dashed (Field-Tested)weapon · consumer$43.9862.83 coins$0.010.02 coins0.00x6h

PP-Bizon | Sand Dashed (Field-Tested)weapon · consumer$43.9862.83 coins$0.010.02 coins0.00x11h

PP-Bizon | Sand Dashed (Field-Tested)weapon · consumerbabylaffytaffy$43.9862.83 coins$0.010.02 coins0.00x11h

USP-S | Neo-Noir (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covertMedical Shit$43.9862.83 coins$95.20136 coins2.16x11h

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.92%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
8 Nov, 23:33 UTC	$43.98	90.92%	10
8 Nov, 17:30 UTC	$44.02	90.91%	10
2 Nov, 21:39 UTC	$43.89	90.91%	10

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedclassified 8.0%red 6.0%mil spec 1.0%covert 27.0%restricted 10.0%consumer 48.0%best hit —