The Doctor

A case on CSGORoll, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.

Price

$34.29

48.99 coins

Advertised RTP

90.91%

EV $31.17 from 16 items

Observed RTP, 30d

92.59%

965 openings, odds method

Variance

2.0×

of price², per opening

Tail share

18.5%

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

77.5%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

38 openings · below min

7 days

94.29%±10.97667 openings

30 days

92.59%±9.13965 openings

since tracking started

92.59%±9.13965 openings

79.5%125.3%171.0%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	38	125.20%±45.3	—	odds
7d	667	94.29%±11.0	+0.6σ	odds
30d	965	92.59%±9.13	+0.4σ	odds
All	965	92.59%±9.13	+0.4σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values16 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 965 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
AK-47 \| X-Ray (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 20,000	$335 478 coins	0.1%	0	0.0	—
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Bloodsport (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 20,000	$277 395 coins	0.0%	0	0.0	—
P250 \| Whiteout (Factory New)weapon · mil spec	1 in 100	$260 371 coins	8.3%	11	9.7	1.14×
★ Classic Knife \| Slaughter (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 10,000	$172 246 coins	0.1%	0	0.1	—
★ Classic Knife \| Crimson Web (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 200	$170 243 coins	2.7%	2	4.8	0.41×
MP7 \| Whiteout (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec	1 in 50	$146 209 coins	9.4%	23	19.3	1.19×
SSG 08 \| Bloodshot (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 33	$109 156 coins	10.5%	31	28.9	1.07×
AWP \| Man-o'-war (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 20	$109 156 coins	17.5%	40	48.3	0.83×
M4A1-S \| Chantico's Fire (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 14	$109 156 coins	24.5%	69	67.6	1.02×
P90 \| Death by Kitty (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 25	$80.50 115 coins	10.3%	45	38.6	1.17×
XM1014 \| Bone Machine (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec	15.0%	$13.45 19.21 coins	6.5%	167	144.8	1.15×
MP7 \| Skulls (Field-Tested)weapon · mil spec	1 in 14	$10.23 14.61 coins	2.3%	61	67.6	0.90×
StatTrak™ AWP \| Capillary (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · mil spec	14.0%	$8.86 12.66 coins	4.0%	138	135.1	1.02×
AUG \| Death by Puppy (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 11	$6.92 9.89 coins	2.1%	75	91.5	0.82×
StatTrak™ AWP \| Capillary (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · mil spec	16.0%	$2.02 2.88 coins	1.0%	143	154.4	0.93×
StatTrak™ Five-SeveN \| Capillary (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · mil spec	16.0%	$1.25 1.79 coins	0.6%	160	154.4	1.04×

Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

StatTrak™ AWP | Capillary (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · mil specCousin of po$34.2948.99 coins$2.022.88 coins0.06x3h

StatTrak™ Five-SeveN | Capillary (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · mil spec$34.2948.99 coins$1.251.79 coins0.04x3h

M4A1-S | Chantico's Fire (Field-Tested)weapon · covert$34.2948.99 coins$109156 coins3.18x3h

SSG 08 | Bloodshot (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified$34.2948.99 coins$109156 coins3.18x3h

StatTrak™ AWP | Capillary (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · mil spec$34.2948.99 coins$8.8612.66 coins0.26x3h

MP7 | Whiteout (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec$34.2948.99 coins$146209 coins4.27x3h

AUG | Death by Puppy (Factory New)weapon · classified$34.2948.99 coins$6.929.89 coins0.20x14h

StatTrak™ Five-SeveN | Capillary (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · mil spec$34.2948.99 coins$1.251.79 coins0.04x14h

AWP | Man-o'-war (Field-Tested)weapon · covert$34.2948.99 coins$109156 coins3.18x14h

P250 | Whiteout (Factory New)weapon · mil spec$34.2948.99 coins$260371 coins7.57x14h

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.91%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
8 Nov, 23:33 UTC	$34.29	90.91%	16
8 Nov, 17:30 UTC	$34.24	90.90%	16
6 Nov, 10:50 UTC	$34.43	90.91%	16
3 Nov, 07:26 UTC	$34.42	90.91%	16
2 Nov, 21:39 UTC	$34.42	90.90%	16

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedcovert 16.5%mil spec 71.0%classified 12.5%best hit —