The Omega

A case on CSGORoll, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.

Price

$44.88

64.12 coins

Advertised RTP

90.91%

EV $40.80 from 10 items

Observed RTP, 30d

86.59%

1,010 openings, odds method

Variance

0.8×

of price², per opening

Tail share

38.0%

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

82.0%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

47 openings · below min

7 days

85.44%±7.02616 openings

30 days

86.59%±5.491,010 openings

since tracking started

86.59%±5.491,010 openings

59.5%85.3%111.0%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	47	85.33%±25.2	—	odds
7d	616	85.44%±7.02	−1.5σ	odds
30d	1,010	86.59%±5.49	−1.6σ	odds
All	1,010	86.59%±5.49	−1.6σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values10 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1,010 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
★ Moto Gloves \| Eclipse (Field-Tested)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 143	$421 602 coins	7.2%	3	7.1	0.42×
★ Sport Gloves \| Omega (Well-Worn)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 333	$134 192 coins	1.0%	3	3.0	0.99×
M4A1-S \| Master Piece (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 20	$109 155 coins	13.3%	48	50.5	0.95×
USP-S \| Kill Confirmed (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 50	$94.50 135 coins	4.6%	15	20.2	0.74×
AK-47 \| Aquamarine Revenge (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	10.0%	$52.27 74.67 coins	12.8%	102	101.0	1.01×
M4A4 \| Neo-Noir (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	20.0%	$43.49 62.13 coins	21.3%	200	202.0	0.99×
P90 \| Cold Blooded (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	10.0%	$43.41 62.02 coins	10.6%	104	101.0	1.03×
AWP \| Wildfire (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	12.0%	$36.40 52 coins	10.7%	120	121.2	0.99×
FAMAS \| Commemoration (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	20.0%	$27.59 39.41 coins	13.5%	223	202.0	1.10×
M4A1-S \| Leaded Glass (Well-Worn)weapon · classified	20.0%	$9.92 14.17 coins	4.9%	192	202.0	0.95×

Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

FAMAS | Commemoration (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert$44.8864.12 coins$27.5939.41 coins0.61x7m

P90 | Cold Blooded (Minimal Wear)weapon · classifiedwSe$44.8864.12 coins$43.4162.02 coins0.97x7m

M4A1-S | Leaded Glass (Well-Worn)weapon · classified$44.8864.12 coins$9.9214.17 coins0.22x19m

P90 | Cold Blooded (Minimal Wear)weapon · classifiedwSe$44.8864.12 coins$43.4162.02 coins0.97x19m

M4A4 | Neo-Noir (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert$44.8864.12 coins$43.4962.13 coins0.97x4h

FAMAS | Commemoration (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covertPuppy Deel$44.8864.12 coins$27.5939.41 coins0.61x4h

FAMAS | Commemoration (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covertBigBice$44.8864.12 coins$27.5939.41 coins0.61x5h

M4A4 | Neo-Noir (Minimal Wear)weapon · covertQueen B ❤$44.8864.12 coins$43.4962.13 coins0.97x5h

FAMAS | Commemoration (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert$44.8864.12 coins$27.5939.41 coins0.61x11h

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.91%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
8 Nov, 23:33 UTC	$44.88	90.91%	10
8 Nov, 17:30 UTC	$45.75	90.91%	10
2 Nov, 21:39 UTC	$45.98	90.91%	10

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedextraordinary 1.0%classified 35.0%covert 64.0%best hit —