The Pact
A case on CSGORoll, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.
Price
$285.66
408 coins
Advertised RTP
90.91%
EV $259.69 from 18 items
Observed RTP, 30d
58.98%
666 openings, odds method
Variance
66.6×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 152
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
95.7%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Small sample. 666 openings and 4.4 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values18 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 666 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
Sticker | Reason Gaming (Holo) | Katowice 2014sticker · remarkable$286408 coins$38K54,245 coins132.9x
StatTrak™ M4A4 | Howl (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · contraband$287410 coins$7,47610,680 coins26.04x
★ Sport Gloves | Slingshot (Factory New)gloves · extraordinaryKickerrrrrrrr$286408 coins$4,0255,750 coins14.09x
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.91%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $286 | 90.91% | 18 |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $287 | 90.91% | 18 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedremarkable 0.3%extraordinary 1.0%contraband 0.7%covert 2.7%epic 0.3%consumer 95.0%best hit $38K (132.9x)