Toybox
A case on CSGORoll (50%), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.
Price
$124.12
177 coins
Advertised RTP
90.91%
EV $112.83 from 23 items
Observed RTP, 30d
99.67%
178 openings, odds method
Variance
12.1×
of price², per opening
Tail share
21.3%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
61.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values23 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 178 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
★ Bayonet | Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Black Pearl)knife · covert · Black Pearl$124178 coins$1,9532,790 coins15.70x
Latest dropsnewest first
★ Falchion Knife | Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Phase 4)knife · covert · Phase 4$124177 coins$267382 coins2.15x
★ Falchion Knife | Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Phase 4)knife · covert · Phase 4$124177 coins$267382 coins2.15x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.91%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC | $124 | 90.91% | 23 |
| 8 Nov, 23:33 UTC | $124 | 90.91% | 23 |
| 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $124 | 90.91% | 23 |
| 8 Nov, 11:27 UTC | $124 | 90.91% | 23 |
| 5 Nov, 10:39 UTC | $124 | 90.91% | 23 |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $124 | 90.91% | 23 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedlegendary 0.0%extraordinary 11.1%remarkable 0.0%covert 38.7%epic 0.0%rare 0.2%classified 25.0%restricted 25.0%best hit $1,953 (15.70x)