Tropical
A case on CSGORoll, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.
Price
$79.91
114 coins
Advertised RTP
90.91%
EV $72.64 from 15 items
Observed RTP, 30d
85.16%
672 openings, odds method
Variance
2.0×
of price², per opening
Tail share
15.1%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
71.4%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values15 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 672 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate, 11 Nov, 14:28 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
★ Karambit | Gamma Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Phase 3)knife · covert · Phase 3Nxxh$79.91114 coins$1,4242,034 coins17.82x
Latest dropsnewest first
StatTrak™ XM1014 | Seasons (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · restricted$79.91114 coins$2.263.23 coins0.03x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.91%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8 Nov, 23:33 UTC | $79.91 | 90.91% | 15 |
| 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $79.83 | 90.91% | 15 |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $78.99 | 90.91% | 15 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 3.6%restricted 69.4%extraordinary 2.0%classified 13.0%legendary 0.0%consumer 12.0%best hit $1,424 (17.82x)