Vermillion

A case on CSGORoll, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.

Price

$169.92

243 coins

Advertised RTP

90.91%

EV $154.48 from 34 items

Observed RTP, 30d

90.38%

120 openings, odds method

Variance

24.1×

of price², per opening

Tail share

1 in 18

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

88.0%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

14 openings · below min

7 days

92.52%±93.95104 openings

30 days

90.38%±87.35120 openings

since tracking started

90.38%±87.35120 openings

-0.5%145.5%291.5%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	14	33.73%±257.2	—	odds
7d	104	92.52%±93.9	+0.0σ	odds
30d	120	90.38%±87.4	−0.0σ	odds
All	120	90.38%±87.4	−0.0σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values34 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 120 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
AWP \| Dragon Lore (Factory New) 4x IBP (Holo) (Factory New)weapon · legendary	1 in 100,000	$140K 200,000 coins	0.9%	0	0.0	—
AK-47 \| Wild Lotus (Factory New) 4x IBP (Holo) (Factory New)weapon · legendary	1 in 66,667	$70K 100,000 coins	0.7%	0	0.0	—
AWP \| Gungnir (Factory New) Titan (Holo) + 3x IBP (Holo) (Factory New)weapon · legendary	1 in 20,000	$56K 80,000 coins	1.8%	0	0.0	—
AK-47 \| Black Laminate (Factory New) 4x Titan (Holo) (Factory New)weapon · legendary	1 in 10,000	$31.5K 45,000 coins	2.0%	0	0.0	—
StatTrak™ M4A4 \| Howl (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · contraband	1 in 2,000	$7,297 10,425 coins	2.4%	0	0.1	—
★ Karambit \| Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Black Pearl)knife · covert · Black Pearl	1 in 1,000	$7,252 10,360 coins	4.7%	0	0.1	—
★ Sport Gloves \| Hedge Maze (Minimal Wear)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 6,667	$6,269 8,955 coins	0.6%	0	0.0	—
★ Butterfly Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2)knife · covert · Phase 2	1 in 286	$3,892 5,560 coins	8.8%	0	0.4	—
AK-47 \| Fire Serpent (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 500	$2,069 2,955 coins	2.7%	3	0.2	—
★ Talon Knife \| Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Sapphire)knife · covert · Sapphire	1 in 1,333	$1,544 2,206 coins	0.7%	0	0.1	—
Glock-18 \| Fade (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	1 in 143	$1,142 1,631 coins	5.2%	1	0.8	—
AK-47 \| Gold Arabesque (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 222	$1,000 1,428 coins	2.9%	0	0.5	—
★ Driver Gloves \| Crimson Weave (Field-Tested)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 69	$931 1,330 coins	8.7%	2	1.7	1.15×
AWP \| Desert Hydra (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 182	$878 1,254 coins	3.1%	0	0.7	—
AWP \| Fade (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 125	$555 793 coins	2.9%	0	1.0	—
★ Karambit \| Lore (Well-Worn)knife · covert	1 in 111	$493 705 coins	2.9%	0	1.1	0.00×
Desert Eagle \| Emerald Jörmungandr (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	1 in 63	$378 540 coins	3.9%	1	1.9	0.52×
M4A1-S \| Printstream (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 80	$328 469 coins	2.7%	0	1.5	0.00×
★ StatTrak™ Navaja Knife \| Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Ruby)StatTrak · knife · covert · Ruby	1 in 87	$319 455 coins	2.4%	3	1.4	2.17×
★ Bayonet \| Autotronic (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 100	$291 416 coins	1.9%	3	1.2	2.50×
★ Broken Fang Gloves \| Unhinged (Factory New)gloves · legendary	1 in 77	$282 403 coins	2.4%	2	1.6	1.28×
StatTrak™ AWP \| Asiimov (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 53	$120 172 coins	1.5%	2	2.3	0.88×
★ Driver Gloves \| Diamondback (Well-Worn)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 50	$116 166 coins	1.5%	1	2.4	0.42×
M4A1-S \| Hyper Beast (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	12.5%	$111 159 coins	9.0%	14	15.0	0.93×
★ Bowie Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 67	$111 158 coins	1.1%	1	1.8	0.56×
★ Driver Gloves \| Imperial Plaid (Battle-Scarred)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 56	$104 148 coins	1.2%	2	2.2	0.93×
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Neon Revolution (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · covert	12.5%	$89.60 128 coins	7.3%	18	15.0	1.20×
USP-S \| Overgrowth (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 50	$78.40 112 coins	1.0%	1	2.4	0.42×
★ Gut Knife \| Autotronic (Well-Worn)knife · covert	1 in 54	$77.70 111 coins	0.9%	1	2.2	0.45×
StatTrak™ Glock-18 \| Bullet Queen (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · covert	12.5%	$52.26 74.66 coins	4.2%	23	15.0	1.53×
AK-47 \| Asiimov (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	12.5%	$40.12 57.31 coins	3.2%	14	15.0	0.93×
★ Survival Knife \| Scorched (Well-Worn)knife · rare	1 in 50	$38.51 55.01 coins	0.5%	4	2.4	1.67×
M4A1-S \| Bright Water (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	12.5%	$35.94 51.34 coins	2.9%	8	15.0	0.53×
M4A1-S \| Decimator (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	12.5%	$17.47 24.95 coins	1.4%	16	15.0	1.07×

Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

AK-47 | Fire Serpent (Factory New)weapon · covert$173247 coins$2,0762,965 coins11.99x3d

AK-47 | Fire Serpent (Factory New)weapon · covert$170243 coins$2,0692,955 coins12.17x2d

AK-47 | Fire Serpent (Factory New)weapon · covert$171244 coins$2,0692,955 coins12.12x2d

Glock-18 | Fade (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted$170243 coins$1,1421,631 coins6.72x1d

★ Driver Gloves | Crimson Weave (Field-Tested)gloves · extraordinary$173247 coins$9441,349 coins5.46x7d

★ Driver Gloves | Crimson Weave (Field-Tested)gloves · extraordinary$170243 coins$9311,330 coins5.47x2d

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

StatTrak™ Glock-18 | Bullet Queen (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · covert$170243 coins$52.2674.66 coins0.31x31m

StatTrak™ AK-47 | Neon Revolution (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · covert$170243 coins$89.60128 coins0.53x31m

M4A1-S | Decimator (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified$170243 coins$17.4724.95 coins0.10x31m

M4A1-S | Hyper Beast (Minimal Wear)weapon · covertkarma$170243 coins$111159 coins0.65x31m

StatTrak™ AK-47 | Neon Revolution (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · covert$170243 coins$89.60128 coins0.53x10h

StatTrak™ Glock-18 | Bullet Queen (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · covert$170243 coins$52.2674.66 coins0.31x10h

M4A1-S | Decimator (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified$170243 coins$17.4724.95 coins0.10x10h

AK-47 | Asiimov (Field-Tested)weapon · covert$170243 coins$40.1257.31 coins0.24x10h

AK-47 | Asiimov (Field-Tested)weapon · covert560 HP$170243 coins$40.1257.31 coins0.24x10h

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.91%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
8 Nov, 23:33 UTC	$170	90.91%	34
8 Nov, 17:30 UTC	$170	90.91%	34
2 Nov, 21:39 UTC	$173	90.91%	34

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedlegendary 1.3%contraband 0.1%covert 62.1%extraordinary 5.3%restricted 16.8%rare 2.0%classified 12.5%best hit $2,076 (11.99x)