Vivid
A case on CSGORoll (20%), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.
Price
$1.15
1.64 coins
Advertised RTP
90.87%
EV $1.04 from 21 items
Observed RTP, 30d
91.46%
36K openings, odds method
Variance
1.8×
of price², per opening
Tail share
95.0%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
89.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values21 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 36K openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
StatTrak™ Desert Eagle | Ocean Drive (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · covertKent$1.151.64 coins$74.20106 coins64.63x
StatTrak™ Desert Eagle | Ocean Drive (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · covertFresh-acc 2,000hours uKatowa$1.171.67 coins$74.20106 coins63.47x
StatTrak™ Desert Eagle | Ocean Drive (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · covert$1.171.67 coins$73.50105 coins62.87x
Latest dropsnewest first
Dual Berettas | Hydro Strike (Battle-Scarred)weapon · commonPatrikol$1.151.64 coins$0.731.05 coins0.64x
Dual Berettas | Hydro Strike (Battle-Scarred)weapon · commonPatrikol$1.151.64 coins$0.731.05 coins0.64x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.87%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC | $1.15 | 90.87% | 21 |
| 10 Nov, 20:20 UTC | $1.15 | 90.89% | 21 |
| 9 Nov, 00:04 UTC | $1.15 | 90.88% | 21 |
| 8 Nov, 23:33 UTC | $1.18 | 90.73% | 21 |
| 7 Nov, 23:21 UTC | $1.17 | 91.13% | 21 |
| 5 Nov, 22:45 UTC | $1.17 | 91.08% | 21 |
| 5 Nov, 10:39 UTC | $1.17 | 90.95% | 21 |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $1.17 | 90.96% | 21 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 0.0%rare 0.0%restricted 9.6%classified 1.3%violet 0.1%mil spec 7.0%industrial 1.0%common 81.0%best hit $74.20 (64.63x)