Voxel

A case on CSGORoll, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.

Price

$281.13

402 coins

Advertised RTP

90.91%

EV $255.57 from 21 items

Observed RTP, 30d

97.95%

106 openings, odds method

Variance

2.6×

of price², per opening

Tail share

11.7%

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

75.8%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

7 days

84 openings · below min

30 days

97.95%±30.67106 openings

since tracking started

97.95%±30.67106 openings

56.5%93.0%129.5%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	0	—	—	—
7d	84	91.84%±34.5	—	odds
30d	106	97.95%±30.7	+0.4σ	odds
All	106	97.95%±30.7	+0.4σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values21 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 106 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
Sticker \| Virtus.Pro (Holo) \| Katowice 2014sticker · legendary	1 in 667	$4,305 6,150 coins	2.5%	0	0.2	—
Sticker \| LGB eSports (Holo) \| Katowice 2014sticker · remarkable	1 in 1,000	$4,088 5,840 coins	1.6%	0	0.1	—
Sticker \| Reason Gaming \| Katowice 2014sticker · high	1 in 133	$3,164 4,520 coins	9.3%	2	0.8	—
Sticker \| Titan \| Katowice 2014sticker · high	1 in 400	$3,136 4,480 coins	3.1%	0	0.3	—
★ Flip Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl)knife · covert · Black Pearl	1 in 61	$1,357 1,939 coins	8.8%	3	1.7	1.72×
★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife \| Crimson Web (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · knife · covert	1 in 100	$1,063 1,518 coins	4.2%	0	1.1	0.00×
Sticker \| jks (Gold) \| Boston 2018sticker · extraordinary	1 in 28	$947 1,353 coins	13.3%	2	3.8	0.52×
★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet \| Crimson Web (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · knife · covert	1 in 80	$861 1,230 coins	4.2%	3	1.3	2.26×
★ Flip Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire)knife · covert · Sapphire	1 in 200	$816 1,166 coins	1.6%	0	0.5	—
AK-47 \| Hydroponic (Well-Worn)weapon · classified	1 in 41	$811 1,159 coins	7.8%	3	2.6	1.16×
Sticker \| JW (Gold) \| Krakow 2017sticker · extraordinary	1 in 50	$448 640 coins	3.5%	2	2.1	0.94×
★ Bayonet \| Lore (Factory New)knife · epic	1 in 65	$434 620 coins	2.6%	5	1.6	3.04×
★ StatTrak™ Navaja Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby)StatTrak · knife · covert · Ruby	1 in 33	$325 464 coins	3.8%	2	3.2	0.63×
Sticker \| nitr0 (Gold) \| Boston 2018sticker · extraordinary	1 in 17	$286 409 coins	6.7%	4	6.4	0.63×
★ Bowie Knife \| Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Phase 2)knife · covert · Phase 2	1 in 25	$269 384 coins	4.2%	3	4.2	0.71×
AK-47 \| Neon Rider (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 12	$174 248 coins	5.8%	11	9.0	1.22×
★ Flip Knife \| Autotronic (Well-Worn)knife · covert	1 in 20	$150 214 coins	2.9%	4	5.3	0.75×
AWP \| Asiimov (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	11.5%	$83.30 119 coins	3.7%	8	12.2	0.66×
M4A1-S \| Golden Coil (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	14.0%	$79.10 113 coins	4.3%	14	14.8	0.94×
StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Player Two (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · covert	17.8%	$51.07 72.95 coins	3.5%	21	18.8	1.12×
P90 \| Cold Blooded (Factory New)weapon · classified	15.0%	$41.94 59.92 coins	2.5%	19	15.9	1.19×

Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

Sticker | Reason Gaming | Katowice 2014sticker · highJake$283404 coins$3,1644,520 coins11.18x6d

Sticker | Reason Gaming | Katowice 2014sticker · high$283404 coins$3,1644,520 coins11.18x8d

★ Flip Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl)knife · covert · Black Pearl$283404 coins$1,3781,968 coins4.87x3d

★ Flip Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl)knife · covert · Black Pearl$283404 coins$1,3781,968 coins4.87x6d

★ Flip Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl)knife · covert · Black Pearl$281402 coins$1,3571,939 coins4.83x23h

Sticker | jks (Gold) | Boston 2018sticker · extraordinary$281402 coins$9471,353 coins3.37x23h

Sticker | jks (Gold) | Boston 2018sticker · extraordinary$283404 coins$9471,353 coins3.35x6d

Sticker | jks (Gold) | Boston 2018sticker · extraordinarym1chi$283404 coins$9471,353 coins3.35x8d

★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet | Crimson Web (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · knife · covert$281402 coins$8611,230 coins3.06x23h

★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet | Crimson Web (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · knife · covertm1chi$283404 coins$8611,230 coins3.04x8d

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

AWP | Asiimov (Well-Worn)weapon · covert$281402 coins$83.30119 coins0.30x23h

P90 | Cold Blooded (Factory New)weapon · classified$281402 coins$41.9459.92 coins0.15x23h

StatTrak™ M4A1-S | Player Two (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · covert$281402 coins$51.0772.95 coins0.18x23h

StatTrak™ M4A1-S | Player Two (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · covertm1chi$281402 coins$51.0772.95 coins0.18x23h

Sticker | nitr0 (Gold) | Boston 2018sticker · extraordinary$281402 coins$286409 coins1.02x23h

StatTrak™ M4A1-S | Player Two (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · covert$281402 coins$51.0772.95 coins0.18x23h

Sticker | jks (Gold) | Boston 2018sticker · extraordinary$281402 coins$9471,353 coins3.37x23h

StatTrak™ M4A1-S | Player Two (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · covertm1chi$281402 coins$51.0772.95 coins0.18x23h

AWP | Asiimov (Well-Worn)weapon · covert$281402 coins$83.30119 coins0.30x23h

M4A1-S | Golden Coil (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert$281402 coins$79.10113 coins0.28x23h

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.91%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
8 Nov, 23:33 UTC	$281	90.91%	21
8 Nov, 17:30 UTC	$282	90.91%	21
2 Nov, 21:39 UTC	$283	90.91%	21

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedlegendary 0.1%remarkable 0.1%high 1.0%covert 68.2%extraordinary 11.6%classified 17.4%epic 1.6%best hit $3,164 (11.18x)