Winter 2021

A case on CSGORoll, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.

Price

$134.67

192 coins

Advertised RTP

90.91%

EV $122.42 from 23 items

Observed RTP, 30d

99.28%

34 openings, odds method

Variance

1.0×

of price², per opening

Tail share

37.5%

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

60.5%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

7 days

21 openings · below min

30 days

34 openings · below min

since tracking started

34 openings · below min

53.0%97.3%141.5%

Small sample. 34 openings and 12.8 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	0	—	—	—
7d	21	97.22%±43.4	—	odds
30d	34	99.28%±34.1	—	odds
All	34	99.28%±34.1	—	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values23 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 34 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
Sticker \| Titan \| Katowice 2014sticker · high	1 in 50,000	$3,136 4,480 coins	0.1%	0	0.0	—
★ Sport Gloves \| Superconductor (Minimal Wear)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 33,333	$2,244 3,205 coins	0.1%	0	0.0	—
AWP \| Medusa (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 1,000	$1,775 2,535 coins	1.4%	0	0.0	—
★ Moto Gloves \| Cool Mint (Factory New)gloves · legendary	1 in 2,000	$1,724 2,463 coins	0.7%	0	0.0	—
★ Talon Knife \| Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Sapphire)knife · covert · Sapphire	1 in 100,000	$1,544 2,206 coins	0.0%	0	0.0	—
M4A4 \| Poseidon (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 400	$1,241 1,773 coins	2.5%	0	0.1	—
★ Sport Gloves \| Amphibious (Minimal Wear)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 667	$566 808 coins	0.7%	1	0.1	—
★ Butterfly Knife \| Bright Water (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 167	$493 705 coins	2.4%	1	0.2	—
★ Karambit \| Bright Water (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 100	$446 637 coins	3.6%	0	0.3	—
★ Bowie Knife \| Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Sapphire)knife · covert · Sapphire	1 in 286	$427 610 coins	1.2%	1	0.1	—
★ Huntsman Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 4)knife · covert · Phase 4	1 in 83	$300 429 coins	2.9%	0	0.4	—
★ Falchion Knife \| Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Phase 4)knife · covert · Phase 4	1 in 67	$267 382 coins	3.3%	0	0.5	—
Dual Berettas \| Duelist (Factory New)weapon · restricted	12.0%	$255 365 coins	25.0%	5	4.1	1.23×
★ Stiletto Knife \| Blue Steel (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 43	$227 324 coins	4.3%	0	0.8	—
Glock-18 \| Twilight Galaxy (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	18.0%	$197 281 coins	28.9%	5	6.1	0.82×
★ Bayonet \| Blue Steel (Battle-Scarred)knife · covert	1 in 50	$180 257 coins	2.9%	0	0.7	—
★ Hand Wraps \| Overprint (Minimal Wear)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 118	$115 164 coins	0.8%	0	0.3	—
MP9 \| Stained Glass (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	1 in 14	$93.80 134 coins	5.4%	2	2.4	0.84×
★ Shadow Daggers \| Blue Steel (Field-Tested)knife · covert	1 in 33	$58.25 83.21 coins	1.4%	0	1.0	0.00×
★ Bowie Knife \| Bright Water (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 37	$48.43 69.18 coins	1.1%	3	0.9	—
★ Navaja Knife \| Blue Steel (Field-Tested)knife · covert	1 in 29	$46.07 65.82 coins	1.3%	0	1.2	0.00×
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Frontside Misty (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · classified	20.0%	$31.18 44.55 coins	5.1%	9	6.8	1.32×
M4A1-S \| Guardian (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	23.4%	$24.88 35.55 coins	4.8%	7	8.0	0.88×

Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

★ Sport Gloves | Amphibious (Minimal Wear)gloves · extraordinarytengi1$135193 coins$564806 coins4.18x7d

★ Butterfly Knife | Bright Water (Minimal Wear)knife · covert$135193 coins$511730 coins3.79x5d

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

StatTrak™ AK-47 | Frontside Misty (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · classified$135193 coins$33.5747.95 coins0.25x4d

M4A1-S | Guardian (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified$135193 coins$24.4234.89 coins0.18x4d

Dual Berettas | Duelist (Factory New)weapon · restrictedViggerMcNieger$135193 coins$250357 coins1.85x4d

StatTrak™ AK-47 | Frontside Misty (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · classified$135193 coins$33.5747.95 coins0.25x4d

M4A1-S | Guardian (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified$135193 coins$24.4234.89 coins0.18x4d

Dual Berettas | Duelist (Factory New)weapon · restrictedViggerMcNieger$135193 coins$250357 coins1.85x4d

StatTrak™ AK-47 | Frontside Misty (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · classified$135193 coins$33.5747.95 coins0.25x4d

Glock-18 | Twilight Galaxy (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified$135193 coins$197282 coins1.46x4d

M4A1-S | Guardian (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified$135193 coins$24.4234.89 coins0.18x4d

StatTrak™ AK-47 | Frontside Misty (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · classified$135193 coins$33.5747.95 coins0.25x4d

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.91%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
8 Nov, 23:33 UTC	$135	90.91%	23
8 Nov, 17:30 UTC	$135	90.91%	23
2 Nov, 21:39 UTC	$135	90.91%	23

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedhigh 0.0%extraordinary 1.0%covert 18.3%legendary 0.1%classified 61.7%restricted 19.0%best hit $564 (4.18x)