Wormhole

A case on CSGORoll, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.

Price

$92.59

132 coins

Advertised RTP

90.91%

EV $84.17 from 16 items

Observed RTP, 30d

89.98%

2,487 openings, odds method

Variance

2.8×

of price², per opening

Tail share

21.8%

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

58.2%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

98.74%±22.97202 openings

7 days

89.90%±7.601,827 openings

30 days

89.98%±6.512,487 openings

since tracking started

89.98%±6.512,487 openings

75.0%98.8%122.5%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	202	98.74%±23.0	+0.7σ	odds
7d	1,827	89.90%±7.60	−0.3σ	odds
30d	2,487	89.98%±6.51	−0.3σ	odds
All	2,487	89.98%±6.51	−0.3σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values16 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 2,487 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
★ Butterfly Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl)knife · covert · Black Pearl	1 in 10,000	$11.4K 16,295 coins	1.4%	0	0.2	—
M4A1-S \| Hot Rod (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 333	$1,091 1,559 coins	3.9%	9	7.5	1.21×
★ StatTrak™ Karambit \| Autotronic (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · knife · covert	1 in 500	$1,047 1,496 coins	2.5%	6	5.0	1.21×
★ Flip Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire)knife · covert · Sapphire	1 in 10,000	$816 1,166 coins	0.1%	0	0.2	—
★ M9 Bayonet \| Autotronic (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 333	$652 932 coins	2.3%	8	7.5	1.07×
★ Sport Gloves \| Vice (Field-Tested)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 10,000	$346 494 coins	0.0%	1	0.2	—
P90 \| Astral Jörmungandr (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	1 in 100	$328 469 coins	3.9%	21	24.9	0.84×
StatTrak™ Five-SeveN \| Hyper Beast (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 25	$209 298 coins	9.9%	105	99.5	1.06×
P90 \| Asiimov (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	16.0%	$174 249 coins	33.1%	405	397.9	1.02×
P250 \| Nuclear Threat (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	1 in 13	$123 176 coins	11.7%	168	199.0	0.84×
M4A4 \| Cyber Security (Factory New)weapon · classified	12.0%	$97.30 139 coins	13.9%	295	298.4	0.99×
AK-47 \| Fuel Injector (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 17	$85.40 122 coins	6.1%	166	149.2	1.11×
★ Navaja Knife \| Ultraviolet (Field-Tested)knife · covert	1 in 33	$42.17 60.24 coins	1.5%	69	74.6	0.92×
AK-47 \| Neon Rider (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	10.0%	$41.03 58.61 coins	4.9%	225	248.7	0.90×
Tec-9 \| Decimator (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classified	21.2%	$13.66 19.51 coins	3.4%	542	526.5	1.03×
StatTrak™ AWP \| Atheris (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	18.0%	$6.43 9.19 coins	1.4%	467	447.7	1.04×

Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

M4A1-S | Hot Rod (Minimal Wear)weapon · classifiedTable flip :) csgoroll.com$93.87134 coins$1,1261,609 coins12.00x3d

M4A1-S | Hot Rod (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified$93.87134 coins$1,1261,609 coins12.00x4d

M4A1-S | Hot Rod (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified$93.87134 coins$1,1261,609 coins12.00x5d

M4A1-S | Hot Rod (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified$93.87134 coins$1,1261,609 coins12.00x8d

M4A1-S | Hot Rod (Minimal Wear)weapon · classifiedPhiliacos$93.87134 coins$1,1261,609 coins12.00x8d

M4A1-S | Hot Rod (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified$92.59132 coins$1,0911,559 coins11.79x22h

★ StatTrak™ Karambit | Autotronic (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · knife · covertGohan$92.59132 coins$1,0471,496 coins11.31x1d

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

P90 | Asiimov (Field-Tested)weapon · covert$92.59132 coins$174249 coins1.88x36m

P90 | Asiimov (Field-Tested)weapon · covert$92.59132 coins$174249 coins1.88x47m

M4A4 | Cyber Security (Factory New)weapon · classifiedJhon csgoroll.com$92.59132 coins$97.30139 coins1.05x47m

P250 | Nuclear Threat (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted$92.59132 coins$123176 coins1.33x48m

Tec-9 | Decimator (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classifiedJpoke$92.59132 coins$13.6619.51 coins0.15x1h

Tec-9 | Decimator (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classified$92.59132 coins$13.6619.51 coins0.15x1h

P250 | Nuclear Threat (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted$92.59132 coins$123176 coins1.33x1h

Tec-9 | Decimator (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classified$92.59132 coins$13.6619.51 coins0.15x1h

StatTrak™ AWP | Atheris (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · restricted$92.59132 coins$6.439.19 coins0.07x1h

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.91%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
8 Nov, 23:33 UTC	$92.59	90.91%	16
8 Nov, 17:30 UTC	$93.05	90.91%	16
2 Nov, 21:39 UTC	$93.87	90.91%	16

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedcovert 39.5%classified 33.5%extraordinary 0.0%restricted 27.0%best hit $1,126 (12.00x)