Wrapped
A case on CSGORoll, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.
Price
$82.70
118 coins
Advertised RTP
90.91%
EV $75.18 from 9 items
Observed RTP, 30d
103.67%
469 openings, odds method
Variance
25.3×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 77
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
92.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values9 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 469 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ★ M9 Bayonet | Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl)knife · covert · Black Pearl | 1 in 333 | $7,000 10,000 coins | 27.9% | 2 | 1.4 | 1.42× |
| ★ StatTrak™ Karambit | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2)StatTrak · knife · covert · Phase 2 | 1 in 100 | $1,691 2,416 coins | 22.5% | 4 | 4.7 | 0.85× |
| ★ Ursus Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 4)knife · covert · Phase 4 | 1 in 45 | $225 321 coins | 6.6% | 16 | 10.3 | 1.55× |
| M4A1-S | Printstream (Field-Tested)weapon · covert | 1 in 22 | $159 227 coins | 9.5% | 27 | 21.1 | 1.28× |
| USP-S | Dark Water (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted | 14.5% | $68.93 98.47 coins | 13.3% | 67 | 68.0 | 0.99× |
| FAMAS | Afterimage (Factory New)weapon · classified | 1 in 13 | $38.02 54.31 coins | 4.0% | 36 | 37.5 | 0.96× |
| Glock-18 | Neo-Noir (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert | 20.0% | $29.02 41.46 coins | 7.7% | 84 | 93.8 | 0.90× |
| SCAR-20 | Cyrex (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified | 18.0% | $24.75 35.36 coins | 5.9% | 91 | 84.4 | 1.08× |
| FAMAS | Valence (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted | 31.5% | $5.96 8.51 coins | 2.5% | 142 | 147.7 | 0.96× |
Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
★ M9 Bayonet | Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl)knife · covert · Black Pearl$82.70118 coins$7,00010,000 coins84.65x
★ M9 Bayonet | Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl)knife · covert · Black Pearl$82.70118 coins$7,00010,000 coins84.65x
★ M9 Bayonet | Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl)knife · covert · Black Pearl$82.30118 coins$7,00010,000 coins85.06x
★ StatTrak™ Karambit | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2)StatTrak · knife · covert · Phase 2$82.30118 coins$1,7022,431 coins20.68x
★ StatTrak™ Karambit | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2)StatTrak · knife · covert · Phase 2$82.70118 coins$1,6912,416 coins20.45x
★ StatTrak™ Karambit | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2)StatTrak · knife · covert · Phase 2$82.70118 coins$1,6912,416 coins20.45x
★ StatTrak™ Karambit | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2)StatTrak · knife · covert · Phase 2Mivjoh$82.70118 coins$1,6912,416 coins20.45x
Latest dropsnewest first
M4A1-S | Printstream (Field-Tested)weapon · covertJhon csgoroll.com$82.70118 coins$159227 coins1.92x
★ StatTrak™ Karambit | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2)StatTrak · knife · covert · Phase 2$82.70118 coins$1,6912,416 coins20.45x
USP-S | Dark Water (Minimal Wear)weapon · restrictedJhon csgoroll.com$82.70118 coins$68.9398.47 coins0.83x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.91%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8 Nov, 23:33 UTC | $82.70 | 90.91% | 9 |
| 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $81.92 | 90.91% | 9 |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $82.30 | 90.91% | 9 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 28.0%restricted 46.0%classified 26.0%best hit $7,000 (84.65x)