Ace
A case on CSGORUN (oldcasesale), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORUN's own item price.
Price
$0.27
Advertised RTP
92.96%
EV $0.25 from 42 items
Observed RTP, 30d
94.29%
9,103 openings, odds method
Variance
4.5×
of price², per opening
Tail share
14.4%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
73.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values42 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 9,104 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are CSGORUN's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
csgorun:v1/box/ace/show, 11 Nov, 10:14 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 92.96%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 4 Nov, 04:54 UTC | $0.27 | 92.96% | 42 |
| 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $0.27 | 92.85% | 42 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 0.0%rare 0.0%gold 0.0%red 0.0%classified 0.2%restricted 5.1%Legendary 0.0%pink 7.7%violet 4.7%#4b69ff 11.4%blue 15.1%Mythical 3.1%milspec 1.9%#8847ff 2.3%Rare 15.9%Uncommon 14.4%Mil Spec Grade 6.9%light blue 5.5%#5e98d9 5.9%best hit —