Armsdeal 2
A case on CSGORUN (coll2026), first seen 5 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORUN's own item price.
Price
$168.99
Advertised RTP
90.94%
EV $153.67 from 36 items
Observed RTP, 30d
27.80%
1 openings, odds method
Variance
0.7×
of price², per opening
Tail share
25.4%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
62.7%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Small sample. 1 openings and 0.3 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values36 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are CSGORUN's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
csgorun:v1/box/armsdeal2/show, 11 Nov, 10:14 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.94%
No data in this window
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 6 Nov, 05:23 UTC | $169 | 90.94% | 36 |
| 5 Nov, 23:09 UTC | $169 | 94.00% | 36 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 63.7%epic 0.0%Covert 1.3%Immortal 0.1%covert knife 6.0%classified 10.9%#ffd700 3.6%gold 3.6%restricted 3.6%#8847ff 3.6%Mil Spec 3.6%best hit —