Autotronic

A case on CSGORUN (patterns2026), first seen 5 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORUN's own item price.

Price
$174.99
Advertised RTP
92.94%
EV $162.64 from 30 items
Observed RTP, 30d
84.06%
14 openings, odds method
Variance
0.5×
of price², per opening
Tail share
31.8%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
60.4%
of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
7 days
14 openings · below min
30 days
14 openings · below min
since tracking started
14 openings · below min
44.5%84.0%123.5%

Small sample. 14 openings and 4.4 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.

Windowsthe test per window

WindowOpeningsObservedDev.Method
24h0———
7d1484.06%±38.8—odds
30d1484.06%±38.8—odds
All1484.06%±38.8—odds
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values30 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 15 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
ItemOddsValueEV shareObservedExpectedHot / cold
★ Karambit | Autotronic (Factory New)knife · covert1 in 2,336$1,6600.4%00.0—
★ Butterfly Knife | Autotronic (Factory New)knife · covert knife1 in 1,468$1,4110.6%00.0—
★ M9 Bayonet | Autotronic (Factory New)knife · covert1 in 740$1,1100.9%00.0—
★ Karambit | Autotronic (Minimal Wear)knife · covert1 in 809$1,0930.8%00.0—
★ Butterfly Knife | Autotronic (Minimal Wear)knife · covert1 in 535$1,0341.2%00.0—
★ Karambit | Autotronic (Field-Tested)knife · covert1 in 383$9011.4%00.0—
★ Butterfly Knife | Autotronic (Field-Tested)knife · covert1 in 337$8011.5%00.0—
★ M9 Bayonet | Autotronic (Minimal Wear)knife · covert1 in 308$7671.5%00.0—
★ M9 Bayonet | Autotronic (Field-Tested)knife · covert1 in 192$6392.1%00.1—
★ Bayonet | Autotronic (Factory New)knife · covert1 in 170$6002.2%00.1—
★ Bayonet | Autotronic (Minimal Wear)knife · covert1 in 36$3255.6%00.4—
★ Flip Knife | Autotronic (Factory New)knife · covert1 in 44$3064.3%20.3—
★ Bayonet | Autotronic (Field-Tested)knife · covert1 in 24$2606.5%00.6—
★ Flip Knife | Autotronic (Minimal Wear)knife · covert1 in 18$2197.5%00.8—
★ Gut Knife | Autotronic (Factory New)knife · covert1 in 16$2057.9%00.9—
★ Huntsman Knife | Autotronic (Factory New)knife · sunny1 in 12$1869.5%21.21.61×
★ Falchion Knife | Autotronic (Factory New)knife · sunny1 in 13$1848.8%11.20.85×
★ Flip Knife | Autotronic (Field-Tested)knife · covert1 in 22$1694.8%10.7—
★ Bowie Knife | Autotronic (Factory New)knife · Immortal1 in 22$1594.5%00.7—
★ Falchion Knife | Autotronic (Minimal Wear)knife · covert1 in 22$1163.3%00.7—
★ Huntsman Knife | Autotronic (Minimal Wear)knife · covert1 in 22$1133.2%00.7—
★ Gut Knife | Autotronic (Minimal Wear)knife · covert1 in 22$1063.0%30.7—
★ Shadow Daggers | Autotronic (Factory New)knife · Immortal1 in 22$96.432.8%00.7—
★ Bowie Knife | Autotronic (Minimal Wear)knife · covert1 in 22$93.522.7%00.7—
★ Falchion Knife | Autotronic (Field-Tested)knife · covert1 in 22$91.742.6%30.7—
★ Huntsman Knife | Autotronic (Field-Tested)knife · gold1 in 22$91.112.6%10.7—
★ Gut Knife | Autotronic (Field-Tested)knife · covert1 in 22$88.952.5%10.7—
★ Bowie Knife | Autotronic (Field-Tested)knife · #ffd7001 in 22$79.442.3%00.7—
★ Shadow Daggers | Autotronic (Minimal Wear)knife · covert1 in 22$54.571.6%10.7—
★ Shadow Daggers | Autotronic (Field-Tested)knife · Immortal1 in 22$46.461.3%00.7—
Values are CSGORUN's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from csgorun:v1/box/autotronic/show, 11 Nov, 10:14 UTC.

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 92.94%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

CapturedPriceAdvertisedItems
6 Nov, 05:23 UTC$17592.94%30
5 Nov, 23:09 UTC$17594.00%30
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedcovert 60.6%covert knife 0.1%sunny 16.1%Immortal 13.9%gold 4.6%#ffd700 4.6%best hit —