Awp
A case on CSGORUN (armory2026), first seen 5 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORUN's own item price.
Price
$2.99
Advertised RTP
94.29%
EV $2.82 from 36 items
Observed RTP, 30d
94.75%
1,088 openings, odds method
Variance
0.8×
of price², per opening
Tail share
30.0%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
61.9%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values36 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1,244 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are CSGORUN's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
csgorun:v1/box/awp/show, 11 Nov, 10:14 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 94.29%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 6 Nov, 05:23 UTC | $2.99 | 94.29% | 36 |
| 5 Nov, 23:09 UTC | $2.99 | 94.00% | 36 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listed#d32ee6 0.0%covert 0.0%rare 0.0%Ancient 0.0%pink 0.5%#d32ce6 0.2%classified 7.5%Legendary 0.9%Mythical 13.6%violet 2.0%#4b69ff 6.9%Classified 3.6%blue 9.0%restricted 26.9%Mil Spec Grade 4.1%#8847ff 8.3%Rare 8.3%milspec 8.3%best hit —