Bank

A case on CSGORUN (coll2026), first seen 5 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORUN's own item price.

Price
$0.20
Advertised RTP
91.90%
EV $0.18 from 35 items
Observed RTP, 30d
89.76%
1,791 openings, odds method
Variance
2.1×
of price², per opening
Tail share
17.9%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
82.1%
of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
24 hours
74.36%±22.09163 openings
7 days
89.76%±6.671,791 openings
30 days
89.76%±6.671,791 openings
since tracking started
89.76%±6.671,791 openings
51.5%74.3%97.0%

Windowsthe test per window

WindowOpeningsObservedDev.Method
24h16374.36%±22.1−1.6σodds
7d1,79189.76%±6.67−0.6σodds
30d1,79189.76%±6.67−0.6σodds
All1,79189.76%±6.67−0.6σodds
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values35 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1,976 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
ItemOddsValueEV shareObservedExpectedHot / cold
AK-47 | Emerald Pinstripe (Factory New)weapon · Mythical1 in 19,231$10.030.3%00.1—
P250 | Franklin (Factory New)weapon · classified1 in 3,922$3.810.5%00.5—
AK-47 | Emerald Pinstripe (Minimal Wear)weapon · Mythical1 in 3,135$3.700.6%00.6—
Galil AR | Tuxedo (Factory New)weapon · Rare1 in 2,008$3.040.8%21.0—
P250 | Franklin (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified1 in 885$2.021.2%42.21.79×
AK-47 | Emerald Pinstripe (Field-Tested)weapon · Mythical1 in 705$2.011.6%52.81.78×
MP7 | Forest DDPAT (Factory New)weapon · Consumer Grade1 in 520$1.791.9%73.81.84×
Galil AR | Tuxedo (Minimal Wear)weapon · Mil Spec Grade1 in 637$1.661.4%13.10.32×
CZ75-Auto | Tuxedo (Factory New)weapon · mil spec1 in 410$1.592.1%14.80.21×
P250 | Franklin (Field-Tested)weapon · Legendary1 in 289$1.372.6%176.82.49×
Desert Eagle | Meteorite (Factory New)weapon · blue1 in 218$1.082.7%69.10.66×
Tec-9 | Urban DDPAT (Factory New)weapon · consumer1 in 166$1.043.4%711.90.59×
Desert Eagle | Meteorite (Field-Tested)weapon · milspec1 in 121$0.974.4%1316.30.80×
Desert Eagle | Meteorite (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec1 in 125$0.974.2%1515.80.95×
R8 Revolver | Bone Mask (Factory New)weapon · #B0C3D91 in 94$0.834.8%1921.00.91×
Galil AR | Tuxedo (Field-Tested)weapon · mil spec1 in 83$0.754.9%1723.90.71×
CZ75-Auto | Tuxedo (Minimal Wear)weapon · Rare1 in 57$0.585.6%4035.01.14×
Sawed-Off | Forest DDPAT (Factory New)weapon · consumer1 in 47$0.495.7%4242.30.99×
CZ75-Auto | Tuxedo (Field-Tested)weapon · #4b69ff1 in 13$0.229.3%149153.60.97×
Glock-18 | Death Rattle (Minimal Wear)weapon · industrial1 in 20$0.174.5%9497.10.97×
MAC-10 | Silver (Minimal Wear)weapon · industrial1 in 12$0.177.7%145164.70.88×
MAC-10 | Silver (Factory New)weapon · light blue1 in 20$0.154.0%9797.11.00×
G3SG1 | Green Apple (Factory New)weapon · industrial1 in 20$0.143.7%9397.10.96×
UMP-45 | Carbon Fiber (Minimal Wear)weapon · industrial1 in 20$0.112.9%10497.11.07×
Nova | Caged Steel (Factory New)weapon · industrial1 in 20$0.112.9%9597.10.98×
G3SG1 | Green Apple (Field-Tested)weapon · #87c7ff1 in 20$0.102.7%11097.11.13×
UMP-45 | Carbon Fiber (Factory New)weapon · industrial1 in 20$0.092.4%10797.11.10×
Nova | Caged Steel (Minimal Wear)weapon · industrial1 in 20$0.071.9%10497.11.07×
MP7 | Forest DDPAT (Minimal Wear)weapon · consumer1 in 20$0.061.6%9497.10.97×
Tec-9 | Urban DDPAT (Minimal Wear)weapon · consumer1 in 20$0.061.6%9497.10.97×
G3SG1 | Green Apple (Minimal Wear)weapon · industrial1 in 20$0.061.6%9097.10.93×
SG 553 | Army Sheen (Factory New)weapon · consumer1 in 20$0.051.3%10297.11.05×
R8 Revolver | Bone Mask (Minimal Wear)weapon · #B0C3D91 in 20$0.041.1%9797.11.00×
Negev | Army Sheen (Factory New)weapon · Common1 in 20$0.041.1%11197.11.14×
Sawed-Off | Forest DDPAT (Minimal Wear)weapon · consumer1 in 20$0.030.8%9497.10.97×
Values are CSGORUN's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from csgorun:v1/box/bank/show, 11 Nov, 10:14 UTC.

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 91.90%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

CapturedPriceAdvertisedItems
6 Nov, 05:23 UTC$0.2091.90%35
5 Nov, 23:09 UTC$0.2094.00%35
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedMythical 0.2%classified 0.1%Rare 1.8%Consumer Grade 0.2%Mil Spec Grade 0.2%mil spec 2.3%Legendary 0.3%blue 0.5%consumer 22.4%milspec 0.8%#B0C3D9 6.0%#4b69ff 7.8%industrial 42.7%light blue 4.9%#87c7ff 4.9%Common 4.9%best hit —