Blackpearl
A case on CSGORUN (patterns2026), first seen 5 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORUN's own item price.
Price
$899.00
Advertised RTP
92.48%
EV $831.42 from 7 items
Observed RTP, 30d
59.53%
2 openings, odds method
Variance
0.6×
of price², per opening
Tail share
42.9%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
79.6%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Small sample. 2 openings and 0.9 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values7 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 2 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ★ M9 Bayonet | Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl)knife · covert · Black Pearl | 1 in 292 | $7,945 | 3.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| ★ Bayonet | Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl)knife · covert · Black Pearl | 1 in 27 | $2,535 | 11.5% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| ★ Stiletto Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl)knife · covert · Black Pearl | 1 in 16 | $1,826 | 14.0% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| ★ Flip Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl)knife · covert · Black Pearl | 1 in 10 | $1,676 | 20.0% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| ★ Ursus Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl)knife · covert · Black Pearl | 22.5% | $741 | 20.0% | 1 | 0.4 | — |
| ★ Shadow Daggers | Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl)knife · covert · Black Pearl | 25.9% | $606 | 18.9% | 0 | 0.5 | — |
| ★ Navaja Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl)knife · covert · Black Pearl | 31.2% | $329 | 12.4% | 1 | 0.6 | — |
Values are CSGORUN's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
csgorun:v1/box/blackpearl/show, 12 Nov, 11:13 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 92.48%
No data in this window
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 6 Nov, 05:23 UTC | $899 | 92.48% | 7 |
| 5 Nov, 23:09 UTC | $899 | 94.00% | 7 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 100.0%best hit $741 (0.82x)