Buster

A case on CSGORUN (media), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORUN's own item price.

Price
$18.99
Advertised RTP
92.61%
EV $17.59 from 42 items
Observed RTP, 30d
81.15%
151 openings, odds method
Variance
1.0×
of price², per opening
Tail share
21.7%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
59.9%
of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
24 hours
1 openings · below min
7 days
79.04%±18.86106 openings
30 days
81.15%±15.81151 openings
since tracking started
81.15%±15.81151 openings
-0.5%115.0%230.5%

Windowsthe test per window

WindowOpeningsObservedDev.Method
24h135.76%±194.2—odds
7d10679.04%±18.9−1.4σodds
30d15181.15%±15.8−1.4σodds
All15181.15%±15.8−1.4σodds
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values42 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 151 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
ItemOddsValueEV shareObservedExpectedHot / cold
AUG | Akihabara Accept (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert1 in 500,000$1,2120.0%00.0—
★ Butterfly Knife | Ultraviolet (Minimal Wear)knife · covert1 in 250,000$7980.0%00.0—
★ Sport Gloves | Amphibious (Minimal Wear)gloves · extraordinary1 in 111,111$6270.0%00.0—
★ Sport Gloves | Vice (Field-Tested)gloves · extraordinary1 in 32,258$4110.1%00.0—
Glock-18 | Synth Leaf (Factory New)weapon · restricted1 in 18,519$3430.1%00.0—
★ Skeleton Knife | Ultraviolet (Minimal Wear)knife · gold1 in 5,988$2510.2%00.0—
★ Bayonet | Ultraviolet (Minimal Wear)knife · covert1 in 4,098$2300.3%00.0—
★ Nomad Knife | Ultraviolet (Minimal Wear)knife · rare1 in 1,211$1440.7%00.1—
M4A1-S | Hyper Beast (Field-Tested)weapon · covert1 in 694$1150.9%00.2—
AK-47 | Neon Revolution (Field-Tested)weapon · red1 in 496$1101.3%00.3—
USP-S | Neo-Noir (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert1 in 499$1051.2%00.3—
★ Ursus Knife | Ultraviolet (Field-Tested)knife · gold1 in 243$82.441.9%20.6—
★ Falchion Knife | Ultraviolet (Field-Tested)knife · sunny1 in 188$71.382.2%00.8—
★ Paracord Knife | Ultraviolet (Field-Tested)knife · rare1 in 128$63.552.8%11.20.85×
★ Bowie Knife | Ultraviolet (Field-Tested)knife · covert1 in 135$61.022.6%11.10.90×
★ Huntsman Knife | Ultraviolet (Field-Tested)knife · #ffd7001 in 125$58.422.7%01.20.00×
★ Survival Knife | Ultraviolet (Field-Tested)knife · gold1 in 138$57.802.4%01.10.00×
M4A1-S | Player Two (Field-Tested)weapon · covert1 in 105$56.963.1%11.40.69×
M4A1-S | Vaporwave (Field-Tested)weapon · red1 in 75$48.533.7%32.01.48×
M4A4 | Neo-Noir (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert1 in 80$48.303.5%11.90.53×
AK-47 | Neon Rider (Field-Tested)weapon · covert1 in 64$45.934.1%22.40.85×
P250 | Digital Architect (Factory New)weapon · restricted1 in 53$39.594.2%32.81.06×
AWP | Hyper Beast (Field-Tested)weapon · covert1 in 41$35.024.8%13.70.27×
AWP | Chromatic Aberration (Field-Tested)weapon · Ancient1 in 36$33.935.4%44.20.94×
AWP | Electric Hive (Field-Tested)weapon · classified1 in 21$26.407.1%97.21.25×
AWP | Pink DDPAT (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted1 in 19$23.847.3%68.20.74×
Glock-18 | Pink DDPAT (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted1 in 21$23.466.3%87.11.13×
M4A4 | Cyber Security (Field-Tested)weapon · classified1 in 12$19.819.4%1212.70.95×
M4A1-S | Party Animal (Minimal Wear)weapon · #d32ce61 in 23$14.243.5%46.50.62×
SG 553 | Ultraviolet (Field-Tested)weapon · Rare1 in 23$12.012.9%66.50.93×
UMP-45 | Neo-Noir (Minimal Wear)weapon · uncommon1 in 23$9.462.3%86.51.24×
MAC-10 | Disco Tech (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified1 in 23$7.561.8%86.51.24×
AK-47 | Baroque Purple (Minimal Wear)weapon · industrial1 in 23$6.791.7%96.51.39×
USP-S | Cortex (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified1 in 23$6.701.6%76.51.08×
MAC-10 | Ultraviolet (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec1 in 23$6.391.6%56.50.77×
USP-S | Purple DDPAT (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec1 in 23$6.371.5%66.50.93×
MP7 | Neon Ply (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted1 in 23$5.011.2%126.51.86×
Galil AR | Chromatic Aberration (Field-Tested)weapon · Legendary1 in 23$3.750.9%96.51.39×
MP9 | Music Box (Minimal Wear)weapon · #4b69ff1 in 23$2.960.7%86.51.24×
Five-SeveN | Retrobution (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted1 in 23$2.790.7%46.50.62×
M4A1-S | Glitched Paint (Minimal Wear)weapon · Mythical1 in 23$2.660.6%56.50.77×
G3SG1 | Digital Mesh (Factory New)weapon · Rare1 in 23$2.170.5%66.50.93×
Values are CSGORUN's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from csgorun:v1/box/buster/show, 11 Nov, 10:14 UTC.

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 92.61%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

CapturedPriceAdvertisedItems
4 Nov, 04:54 UTC$18.9992.61%42
3 Nov, 04:27 UTC$18.9992.96%42
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedcovert 7.3%extraordinary 0.0%restricted 20.5%gold 1.2%rare 0.9%red 1.5%sunny 0.5%#ffd700 0.8%Ancient 2.8%classified 21.7%#d32ce6 4.3%Rare 8.6%uncommon 4.3%industrial 4.3%mil spec 8.6%Legendary 4.3%#4b69ff 4.3%Mythical 4.3%best hit —