Calendar
A case on CSGORUN (oldcasesale), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORUN's own item price.
Price
$0.77
Advertised RTP
93.16%
EV $0.72 from 42 items
Observed RTP, 30d
90.63%
2,129 openings, odds method
Variance
11.2×
of price², per opening
Tail share
26.6%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
73.4%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values42 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 2,133 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are CSGORUN's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
csgorun:v1/box/calendar/show, 11 Nov, 10:14 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 93.16%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5 Nov, 23:09 UTC | $0.77 | 93.16% | 42 |
| 4 Nov, 04:54 UTC | $0.76 | 94.39% | 42 |
| 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $0.76 | 93.69% | 42 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedlegendary 0.0%#ffd700 0.0%gold 0.0%classified 6.2%covert 0.0%rare 0.0%extraordinary 0.0%red 0.0%Ancient 0.0%Legendary 0.1%restricted 19.8%#d32ce6 0.4%#8847ff 7.4%pink 3.1%violet 10.9%mil spec 7.1%milspec 11.6%#4b69ff 11.5%Rare 5.9%industrial 5.5%#5e98d9 5.3%blue 5.0%best hit —