Chillguy
A case on CSGORUN (oldcasesale), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORUN's own item price.
Price
$0.16
Advertised RTP
88.67%
EV $0.14 from 46 items
Observed RTP, 30d
88.43%
7,072 openings, odds method
Variance
1.7×
of price², per opening
Tail share
20.2%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
72.8%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values46 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 7,072 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are CSGORUN's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
csgorun:v1/box/chillguy/show, 11 Nov, 10:14 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 88.67%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5 Nov, 23:09 UTC | $0.16 | 88.67% | 46 |
| 4 Nov, 04:54 UTC | $0.15 | 94.58% | 46 |
| 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $0.15 | 96.47% | 46 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listed2 0.0%restricted 1.8%classified 0.0%uncommon 0.0%Classified 0.0%#8847ff 0.1%blue 12.3%violet 2.3%mil spec 0.4%milspec 4.5%Mythical 0.5%Rare 7.9%#F2F8FF 1.0%industrial 10.7%#5e98d9 7.0%#4b69ff 21.4%#87c7ff 7.4%other 7.7%Common 7.7%#B0C3D9 7.4%best hit —