Covert

A case on CSGORUN (rarity2026), first seen 5 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORUN's own item price.

Price

$108.99

Advertised RTP

91.74%

EV $99.99 from 38 items

Observed RTP, 30d

72.40%

48 openings, odds method

Variance

0.7×

of price², per opening

Tail share

30.0%

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

54.2%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

3 openings · below min

7 days

48 openings · below min

30 days

48 openings · below min

since tracking started

48 openings · below min

-0.5%90.8%182.0%

Small sample. 48 openings and 14.4 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	3	85.20%±96.2	—	odds
7d	48	72.40%±24.1	—	odds
30d	48	72.40%±24.1	—	odds
All	48	72.40%±24.1	—	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values38 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 74 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
AWP \| Medusa (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 333,333	$5,910	0.0%	0	0.0	—
★ Butterfly Knife \| Crimson Web (Factory New)knife · knifes	1 in 200,000	$4,890	0.0%	0	0.0	—
AWP \| Medusa (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 62,500	$3,252	0.1%	0	0.0	—
AWP \| The Prince (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 34,483	$2,618	0.1%	0	0.0	—
★ Butterfly Knife \| Doppler (Factory New)knife · sunny	1 in 15,152	$2,122	0.1%	0	0.0	—
M4A1-S \| Welcome to the Jungle (Factory New)weapon · legendary	1 in 6,135	$1,513	0.2%	0	0.0	—
★ M9 Bayonet \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New)knife · #ffd700	1 in 3,021	$1,163	0.4%	0	0.0	—
★ M9 Bayonet \| Doppler (Factory New)knife · sunny	1 in 1,385	$911	0.7%	0	0.1	—
★ Butterfly Knife \| Damascus Steel (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 740	$776	1.0%	0	0.1	—
★ Karambit \| Freehand (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 358	$588	1.6%	0	0.2	—
AWP \| Lightning Strike (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 214	$496	2.3%	0	0.3	—
★ Bayonet \| Doppler (Factory New)knife · sunny	1 in 145	$416	2.9%	0	0.5	—
SSG 08 \| Dragonfire (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 97	$332	3.4%	0	0.8	—
M4A4 \| Buzz Kill (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 68	$275	4.0%	1	1.1	0.92×
AK-47 \| The Oligarch (Factory New)weapon · red	1 in 48	$222	4.6%	1	1.5	0.65×
M4A1-S \| Cyrex (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 36	$192	5.3%	1	2.1	0.49×
M4A4 \| Royal Paladin (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 27	$159	5.9%	4	2.8	1.45×
★ Skeleton Knife \| Scorched (Minimal Wear)knife · covert knife	1 in 22	$154	7.0%	3	3.4	0.89×
AK-47 \| B the Monster (Minimal Wear)weapon · Ancient	1 in 17	$140	8.2%	5	4.3	1.16×
M4A1-S \| Hyper Beast (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 14	$127	8.8%	2	5.1	0.39×
★ Kukri Knife \| Slaughter (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 12	$118	9.6%	4	6.0	0.66×
AK-47 \| Neon Revolution (Minimal Wear)weapon · red	1 in 13	$118	9.0%	10	5.6	1.77×
MP9 \| Starlight Protector (Factory New)weapon · red	1 in 30	$92.44	3.1%	2	2.5	0.80×
M4A4 \| Bullet Rain (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 30	$85.79	2.9%	1	2.5	0.40×
M4A4 \| Full Throttle (Minimal Wear)weapon · red	1 in 30	$71.01	2.4%	3	2.5	1.20×
MP9 \| Starlight Protector (Minimal Wear)weapon · red	1 in 30	$66.63	2.3%	3	2.5	1.20×
USP-S \| Printstream (Minimal Wear)weapon · red	1 in 30	$56.82	1.9%	2	2.5	0.80×
AWP \| Hyper Beast (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 30	$49.97	1.7%	4	2.5	1.60×
AWP \| Neo-Noir (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 30	$45.86	1.6%	1	2.5	0.40×
M4A4 \| In Living Color (Minimal Wear)weapon · Ancient	1 in 30	$38.80	1.3%	5	2.5	2.00×
AWP \| Chrome Cannon (Minimal Wear)weapon · Ancient	1 in 30	$34.66	1.2%	1	2.5	0.40×
Glock-18 \| Gold Toof (Minimal Wear)weapon · Ancient	1 in 30	$31.86	1.1%	1	2.5	0.40×
M4A4 \| Desert-Strike (Field-Tested)weapon · Ancient	1 in 30	$29.64	1.0%	7	2.5	2.79×
M4A4 \| The Battlestar (Minimal Wear)weapon · Ancient	1 in 30	$29.33	1.0%	4	2.5	1.60×
Glock-18 \| Gold Toof (Field-Tested)weapon · red	1 in 30	$28.08	1.0%	1	2.5	0.40×
AWP \| Chrome Cannon (Field-Tested)weapon · red	1 in 30	$27.92	0.9%	2	2.5	0.80×
AK-47 \| Aphrodite (Minimal Wear)weapon · Ancient	1 in 30	$24.78	0.8%	2	2.5	0.80×
AK-47 \| Aphrodite (Field-Tested)weapon · #eb4b4b	1 in 30	$14.72	0.5%	4	2.5	1.60×

Values are CSGORUN's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from csgorun:v1/box/covert/show, 11 Nov, 10:14 UTC.