Cryptoautumn
A case on CSGORUN (oldcasesale), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORUN's own item price.
Price
$48.12
Advertised RTP
93.99%
EV $45.23 from 49 items
Observed RTP, 30d
91.33%
90 openings, odds method
Variance
1.2×
of price², per opening
Tail share
22.5%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
73.3%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Small sample. 90 openings and 20.3 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values49 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 90 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are CSGORUN's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
csgorun:v1/box/cryptoautumn/show, 11 Nov, 10:14 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 93.99%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5 Nov, 23:09 UTC | $48.12 | 93.99% | 49 |
| 4 Nov, 04:54 UTC | $50.70 | 89.21% | 49 |
| 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $50.70 | 91.98% | 49 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 1.7%extraordinary 0.0%sunny 0.0%classified 20.6%restricted 17.3%Mythical 0.2%Ancient 0.7%rare 6.1%industrial 11.8%Mil Spec Grade 1.6%mil spec 10.2%Consumer Grade 7.5%Rare 4.8%#4b69ff 4.8%red 4.6%consumer 6.9%blue 1.1%best hit —