Ct 0m

A case on CSGORUN (media), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORUN's own item price.

Price
$3.79
Advertised RTP
90.46%
EV $3.43 from 42 items
Observed RTP, 30d
87.50%
1,400 openings, odds method
Variance
1.0×
of price², per opening
Tail share
20.5%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
74.7%
of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
24 hours
99.08%±13.33210 openings
7 days
89.00%±5.811,105 openings
30 days
87.50%±5.161,400 openings
since tracking started
87.50%±5.161,400 openings
81.5%97.2%113.0%

Windowsthe test per window

WindowOpeningsObservedDev.Method
24h21099.08%±13.3+1.3σodds
7d1,10589.00%±5.81−0.5σodds
30d1,40087.50%±5.16−1.1σodds
All1,40087.50%±5.16−1.1σodds
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values42 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1,400 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
ItemOddsValueEV shareObservedExpectedHot / cold
★ Falchion Knife | Crimson Web (Minimal Wear)knife · covert1 in 250,000$2130.0%00.0—
AK-47 | Bloodsport (Factory New)weapon · covert1 in 125,000$1550.0%00.0—
★ Kukri Knife | Crimson Web (Minimal Wear)knife · Immortal1 in 52,632$1130.1%00.0—
AK-47 | Red Laminate (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified1 in 21,277$83.770.1%00.1—
Five-SeveN | Candy Apple (Minimal Wear)weapon · industrial1 in 9,259$64.000.2%00.2—
AWP | Hyper Beast (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert1 in 4,762$49.970.3%00.3—
AK-47 | Asiimov (Field-Tested)weapon · covert1 in 2,545$42.880.5%00.6—
AK-47 | Redline (Field-Tested)weapon · classified1 in 956$29.060.9%11.50.68×
P250 | Red Rock (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted1 in 452$23.751.5%13.10.32×
SSG 08 | Bloodshot (Field-Tested)weapon · classified1 in 247$19.162.3%25.70.35×
AK-47 | Green Laminate (Minimal Wear)weapon · blue1 in 195$16.272.4%97.21.25×
AK-47 | Blue Laminate (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted1 in 142$14.022.9%69.90.61×
P250 | Asiimov (Field-Tested)weapon · classified1 in 126$12.642.9%1011.10.90×
SCAR-20 | Bloodsport (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified1 in 114$12.563.2%1012.30.82×
AWP | Elite Build (Field-Tested)weapon · classified1 in 94$10.983.4%1514.81.01×
Nova | Hyper Beast (Field-Tested)weapon · classified1 in 86$10.483.5%1316.20.80×
SCAR-20 | Cardiac (Minimal Wear)weapon · pink1 in 94$10.363.2%915.00.60×
Desert Eagle | Crimson Web (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted1 in 77$10.283.9%1518.30.82×
FAMAS | Pulse (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted1 in 54$7.444.0%3125.81.20×
AK-47 | Midnight Laminate (Minimal Wear)weapon · Mythical1 in 32$6.445.8%6843.41.57×
Nova | Red Quartz (Minimal Wear)weapon · Restricted1 in 38$6.294.8%4136.71.12×
SSG 08 | Red Stone (Field-Tested)weapon · common1 in 22$4.836.6%7565.11.15×
CZ75-Auto | Crimson Web (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec1 in 21$4.706.6%7667.51.13×
USP-S | Cortex (Field-Tested)weapon · classified1 in 12$3.658.9%112116.60.96×
P2000 | Red FragCam (Field-Tested)weapon · mil spec1 in 27$3.223.5%4351.60.83×
XM1014 | Red Python (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec1 in 27$3.043.3%4151.60.79×
SCAR-20 | Crimson Web (Field-Tested)weapon · Rare1 in 27$3.023.2%5051.60.97×
P90 | Virus (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted1 in 27$2.913.1%5351.61.03×
SG 553 | Pulse (Field-Tested)weapon · #8847ff1 in 27$2.322.5%5851.61.12×
UMP-45 | Crimson Foil (Minimal Wear)weapon · uncommon1 in 27$2.252.4%5151.60.99×
Glock-18 | Red Tire (Field-Tested)weapon · Uncommon1 in 27$2.022.2%5051.60.97×
AK-47 | Elite Build (Field-Tested)weapon · Rare1 in 27$1.922.1%5451.61.05×
FAMAS | Neural Net (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted1 in 27$1.521.6%4451.60.85×
CZ75-Auto | Red Astor (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted1 in 27$1.331.4%5851.61.12×
MP9 | Ruby Poison Dart (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted1 in 27$1.071.2%4351.60.83×
R8 Revolver | Crimson Web (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec1 in 27$0.901.0%4251.60.81×
P2000 | Pulse (Field-Tested)weapon · mil spec1 in 27$0.870.9%5851.61.12×
Dual Berettas | Elite 1.6 (Factory New)weapon · Rare1 in 27$0.780.8%4551.60.87×
UMP-45 | Warm Blooded (Factory New)weapon · #4b69ff1 in 27$0.770.8%6051.61.16×
P2000 | Red Wing (Factory New)weapon · blue1 in 27$0.770.8%4951.60.95×
MP9 | Bioleak (Factory New)weapon · Rare1 in 27$0.480.5%5951.61.14×
P90 | Elite Build (Minimal Wear)weapon · Rare1 in 27$0.470.5%4851.60.93×
Values are CSGORUN's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from csgorun:v1/box/ct0m/show, 11 Nov, 10:14 UTC.

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.46%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

CapturedPriceAdvertisedItems
4 Nov, 04:54 UTC$3.7990.46%42
3 Nov, 04:27 UTC$3.7990.47%42
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedcovert 0.1%Immortal 0.0%classified 12.7%industrial 0.0%restricted 18.8%blue 4.2%pink 1.1%Mythical 3.1%Restricted 2.6%common 4.6%mil spec 19.6%Rare 18.4%#8847ff 3.7%uncommon 3.7%Uncommon 3.7%#4b69ff 3.7%best hit —