Dangerlyoha
A case on CSGORUN (media), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORUN's own item price.
Price
$2.19
Advertised RTP
90.76%
EV $1.99 from 42 items
Observed RTP, 30d
93.66%
3,040 openings, odds method
Variance
0.4×
of price², per opening
Tail share
35.2%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
57.5%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Outside band, 30 days. Advertised 91.02% sits outside the 95% band of the observed openings (91.37% – 95.94%, 3,040 openings, 30 days). The band comes from the site's own odds and values; the figure is a fact about these openings, not a verdict on the case.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values42 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 3,040 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are CSGORUN's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
csgorun:v1/box/dangerlyoha/show, 11 Nov, 10:14 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.76%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 4 Nov, 04:54 UTC | $2.19 | 90.76% | 42 |
| 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $2.19 | 92.04% | 42 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listed3 5.1%covert 0.0%covert knife 0.0%extraordinary 0.0%restricted 19.7%industrial 7.6%classified 0.8%#8847ff 6.1%blueLight 0.4%#4b69ff 7.2%other 1.3%mil spec 4.8%Uncommon 11.1%consumer 8.3%Industrial Grade 7.3%Restricted 5.1%Rare 10.1%Consumer Grade 2.8%milspec 2.2%best hit —