Doplercase
A case on CSGORUN (oldcasesale), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORUN's own item price.
Price
$85.74
Advertised RTP
94.00%
EV $80.59 from 47 items
Observed RTP, 30d
63.19%
37 openings, odds method
Variance
2.2×
of price², per opening
Tail share
12.5%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
67.9%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Small sample. 37 openings and 4.6 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values47 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 37 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are CSGORUN's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
csgorun:v1/box/doplercase/show, 11 Nov, 10:14 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 94.00%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5 Nov, 23:09 UTC | $85.74 | 94.00% | 47 |
| 4 Nov, 04:54 UTC | $88.73 | 90.83% | 47 |
| 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $88.73 | 91.77% | 47 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 3.0%Covert 2.3%gold 0.3%#ffd700 0.9%covert knife 5.6%sunny 3.4%#EB4B4B 0.9%rare 1.6%classified 4.9%red 4.5%mil spec 26.8%#eb4b4b 5.9%exotic 8.9%restricted 10.9%Mythical 20.2%best hit —