Dusty
A case on CSGORUN (oldcasesale), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORUN's own item price.
Price
$3.17
Advertised RTP
93.75%
EV $2.97 from 42 items
Observed RTP, 30d
92.68%
1,527 openings, odds method
Variance
1.0×
of price², per opening
Tail share
21.2%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
62.4%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values42 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1,527 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are CSGORUN's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
csgorun:v1/box/dusty/show, 11 Nov, 10:14 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 93.75%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5 Nov, 23:09 UTC | $3.17 | 93.75% | 42 |
| 4 Nov, 04:54 UTC | $3.21 | 92.58% | 42 |
| 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $3.21 | 93.44% | 42 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 0.1%classified 13.4%covert knife 0.0%#EB4B4B 0.0%Ancient 0.0%gold 0.0%red 0.0%Legendary 1.1%milspec 10.9%#d32ce6 1.3%pink 11.8%restricted 30.3%Mythical 8.1%violet 3.4%Classified 3.2%Rare 6.3%common 10.0%best hit —