Facetoface
A case on CSGORUN (oldcasesale), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORUN's own item price.
Price
$4.99
Advertised RTP
93.94%
EV $4.69 from 42 items
Observed RTP, 30d
98.06%
250 openings, odds method
Variance
6.1×
of price², per opening
Tail share
28.7%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
64.6%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values42 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 251 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are CSGORUN's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
csgorun:v1/box/facetoface/show, 11 Nov, 10:14 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 93.94%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5 Nov, 23:09 UTC | $4.99 | 93.94% | 42 |
| 4 Nov, 04:54 UTC | $4.95 | 94.70% | 42 |
| 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $4.95 | 93.89% | 42 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 0.1%extraordinary 0.0%#ffd700 0.0%covert knife 0.1%Immortal 0.0%red 0.6%rare 0.4%pink 21.7%#d32ee6 8.0%classified 19.0%uncommon 9.0%restricted 12.7%#8847ff 6.3%Mythical 10.1%milspec 8.3%Rare 3.8%best hit —