Fade

A case on CSGORUN (patterns2026), first seen 5 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORUN's own item price.

Price

$564.99

Advertised RTP

91.80%

EV $518.66 from 29 items

Observed RTP, 30d

113.32%

40 openings, odds method

Variance

0.6×

of price², per opening

Tail share

28.2%

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

64.8%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

7 days

40 openings · below min

30 days

40 openings · below min

since tracking started

40 openings · below min

89.0%113.5%138.0%

Small sample. 40 openings and 11.3 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	0	—	—	—
7d	40	113.32%±23.9	—	odds
30d	40	113.32%±23.9	—	odds
All	40	113.32%±23.9	—	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values29 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 40 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
★ Butterfly Knife \| Fade (Minimal Wear)knife · epic	1 in 212	$2,561	2.3%	1	0.2	—
★ Karambit \| Fade (Minimal Wear)knife · epic	1 in 212	$2,505	2.3%	0	0.2	—
★ Butterfly Knife \| Fade (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 169	$2,208	2.5%	2	0.2	—
Glock-18 \| Fade (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	1 in 135	$1,955	2.8%	0	0.3	—
★ Karambit \| Fade (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 120	$1,814	2.9%	1	0.3	—
★ Specialist Gloves \| Fade (Factory New)gloves · legendary	1 in 103	$1,695	3.2%	0	0.4	—
Glock-18 \| Fade (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 65	$1,378	4.1%	0	0.6	—
★ M9 Bayonet \| Fade (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 58	$1,201	4.0%	0	0.7	—
★ Talon Knife \| Fade (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 34	$904	5.2%	0	1.2	0.00×
★ M9 Bayonet \| Fade (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 30	$894	5.7%	1	1.3	0.76×
AWP \| Fade (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 26	$868	6.4%	2	1.5	1.31×
★ Talon Knife \| Fade (Factory New)knife · epic	1 in 25	$816	6.4%	2	1.6	1.23×
AWP \| Fade (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 15	$642	8.3%	7	2.7	2.60×
★ Skeleton Knife \| Fade (Minimal Wear)knife · legendary	1 in 14	$599	8.1%	2	2.8	0.72×
★ Bayonet \| Fade (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 25	$549	4.3%	1	1.6	0.62×
★ Stiletto Knife \| Fade (Minimal Wear)knife · covert knife	1 in 12	$546	8.7%	3	3.3	0.90×
★ Skeleton Knife \| Fade (Factory New)knife · legendary	1 in 25	$488	3.8%	4	1.6	2.48×
★ Stiletto Knife \| Fade (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 25	$400	3.1%	1	1.6	0.62×
★ Bayonet \| Fade (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 25	$358	2.8%	0	1.6	0.00×
★ Flip Knife \| Fade (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 25	$297	2.3%	1	1.6	0.62×
★ Classic Knife \| Fade (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 25	$271	2.1%	1	1.6	0.62×
M4A1-S \| Fade (Minimal Wear)weapon · epic	1 in 25	$221	1.7%	2	1.6	1.24×
UMP-45 \| Fade (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 25	$187	1.5%	3	1.6	1.86×
★ Kukri Knife \| Fade (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 25	$165	1.3%	2	1.6	1.24×
★ Navaja Knife \| Fade (Minimal Wear)knife · covert knife	1 in 25	$150	1.2%	1	1.6	0.62×
★ Gut Knife \| Fade (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 25	$119	0.9%	0	1.6	0.00×
★ Navaja Knife \| Fade (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 25	$99.28	0.8%	1	1.6	0.62×
R8 Revolver \| Fade (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 25	$96.24	0.7%	0	1.6	0.00×
R8 Revolver \| Fade (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 25	$86.43	0.7%	2	1.6	1.24×

Values are CSGORUN's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from csgorun:v1/box/fade/show, 11 Nov, 10:14 UTC.