Farm hyperbeast
A case on CSGORUN (farm2026), first seen 9 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORUN's own item price.
Price
$0.49
Advertised RTP
94.00%
EV $0.46 from 4 items
Observed RTP, 30d
84.45%
5,569 openings, odds method
Variance
25.8×
of price², per opening
Tail share
11.1%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
73.6%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values4 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 6,909 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AWP | Hyper Beast (Field-Tested)weapon · covert | 1 in 200 | $35.02 | 38.0% | 31 | 34.5 | 0.90× |
| AWP | Pit Viper (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted | 10.6% | $1.32 | 30.4% | 748 | 732.8 | 1.02× |
| AWP | Capillary (Field-Tested)weapon · milspec | 15.3% | $0.71 | 23.6% | 1,047 | 1057.7 | 0.99× |
| AUG | Storm (Minimal Wear)weapon · consumer | 73.6% | $0.05 | 8.0% | 5,083 | 5083.9 | 1.00× |
Values are CSGORUN's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
csgorun:v1/box/farm_hyperbeast/show, 11 Nov, 10:14 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 94.00%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 9 Nov, 20:46 UTC | $0.49 | 94.00% | 4 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 0.5%restricted 10.6%milspec 15.3%consumer 73.6%best hit $35.02 (71.47x)