Faze team

A case on CSGORUN (oldcasesale), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORUN's own item price.

Price
$0.92
Advertised RTP
93.32%
EV $0.86 from 42 items
Observed RTP, 30d
92.66%
2,591 openings, odds method
Variance
3.9×
of price², per opening
Tail share
17.9%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
70.7%
of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
24 hours
1 openings · below min
7 days
91.23%±9.741,572 openings
30 days
92.66%±7.642,591 openings
since tracking started
92.66%±7.642,591 openings
-0.5%206.3%413.0%

Windowsthe test per window

WindowOpeningsObservedDev.Method
24h127.17%±385.2—odds
7d1,57291.23%±9.74−0.5σodds
30d2,59192.66%±7.64−0.3σodds
All2,59192.66%±7.64−0.3σodds
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values42 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 2,591 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
ItemOddsValueEV shareObservedExpectedHot / cold
★ Sport Gloves | Frosty (Factory New)gloves · legendary1 in 1,000,000$1,2340.1%00.0—
★ Butterfly Knife | Bright Water (Field-Tested)knife · covert1 in 1,000,000$5320.1%00.0—
★ Ursus Knife | Doppler (Factory New)knife · sunny1 in 1,000,000$2320.0%00.0—
AK-47 | Frontside Misty (Factory New)weapon · classified1 in 333,333$94.140.0%00.0—
M4A4 | Full Throttle (Minimal Wear)weapon · red1 in 142,857$71.010.1%00.0—
★ Gut Knife | Ultraviolet (Field-Tested)knife · Covert1 in 83,333$53.110.1%00.0—
★ Shadow Daggers | Bright Water (Field-Tested)knife · covert1 in 50,000$40.840.1%00.1—
AK-47 | Legion of Anubis (Battle-Scarred)weapon · red1 in 32,258$36.500.1%00.1—
USP-S | Printstream (Battle-Scarred)weapon · Ancient1 in 29,412$32.300.1%00.1—
AWP | Chrome Cannon (Well-Worn)weapon · red1 in 17,241$25.780.2%00.2—
UMP-45 | Primal Saber (Factory New)weapon · classified1 in 6,536$16.230.3%00.4—
AK-47 | Frontside Misty (Field-Tested)weapon · classified1 in 4,902$15.810.4%00.5—
M4A1-S | Party Animal (Minimal Wear)weapon · #d32ce61 in 4,587$14.240.4%20.6—
AWP | Green Energy (Minimal Wear)weapon · #d32ce61 in 3,846$13.660.4%00.7—
AWP | Fever Dream (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified1 in 3,521$13.520.4%10.7—
M4A1-S | Solitude (Factory New)weapon · Legendary1 in 2,012$10.650.6%11.30.78×
P250 | Cartel (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classified1 in 1,603$10.600.8%11.60.62×
MP9 | Latte Rush (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classified1 in 421$5.741.6%36.20.49×
Glock-18 | Mirror Mosaic (Field-Tested)weapon · pink1 in 285$5.462.2%139.11.43×
MP5-SD | Phosphor (Well-Worn)weapon · classified1 in 223$5.182.7%1411.61.20×
AWP | Mortis (Minimal Wear)weapon · Legendary1 in 225$4.782.5%1711.51.48×
SG 553 | Cyrex (Field-Tested)weapon · classified1 in 189$4.322.7%713.70.51×
P90 | Virus (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #8847ff1 in 86$3.975.4%2830.00.93×
USP-S | Cortex (Field-Tested)weapon · classified1 in 138$3.653.1%2118.71.12×
AWP | Black Nile (Battle-Scarred)weapon · blue1 in 95$2.973.6%2327.20.85×
P250 | Vino Primo (Minimal Wear)weapon · #8847ff1 in 89$2.773.6%3129.21.06×
SG 553 | Pulse (Battle-Scarred)weapon · Restricted1 in 67$2.354.1%4338.51.12×
Dual Berettas | Twin Turbo (Well-Worn)weapon · pink1 in 72$2.313.7%3836.11.05×
XM1014 | Seasons (Field-Tested)weapon · violet1 in 23$1.356.9%95113.00.84×
M4A4 | Turbine (Well-Worn)weapon · violet1 in 23$1.186.0%106113.00.94×
USP-S | Tropical Breeze (Factory New)weapon · #4b69ff1 in 16$1.108.1%185164.61.12×
MP9 | Goo (Field-Tested)weapon · Mythical1 in 20$1.096.4%136131.11.04×
M4A1-S | Electrum (Battle-Scarred)weapon · restricted1 in 14$0.726.0%172184.60.93×
USP-S | Torque (Field-Tested)weapon · mil spec1 in 14$0.675.6%166185.00.90×
AK-47 | Wintergreen (Well-Worn)weapon · #4b69ff1 in 14$0.635.2%183184.70.99×
SSG 08 | Abyss (Field-Tested)weapon · mil spec1 in 14$0.494.0%191183.71.04×
AWP | Arsenic Spill (Battle-Scarred)weapon · blue1 in 14$0.332.7%176183.20.96×
MP9 | Bioleak (Minimal Wear)weapon · Rare1 in 14$0.322.6%172182.90.94×
USP-S | Alpine Camo (Field-Tested)weapon · #4b69ff1 in 14$0.312.5%194182.91.06×
CZ75-Auto | Imprint (Well-Worn)weapon · Mil Spec Grade1 in 14$0.252.0%200181.91.10×
UMP-45 | Warm Blooded (Field-Tested)weapon · blue1 in 14$0.171.4%196181.41.08×
AK-47 | Olive Polycam (Minimal Wear)weapon · Uncommon1 in 14$0.131.1%176181.10.97×
Values are CSGORUN's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from csgorun:v1/box/faze_team/show, 11 Nov, 10:14 UTC.

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 93.32%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

CapturedPriceAdvertisedItems
5 Nov, 23:09 UTC$0.9293.32%42
4 Nov, 04:54 UTC$0.9194.35%42
3 Nov, 04:27 UTC$0.9193.99%42
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedlegendary 0.0%covert 0.0%sunny 0.0%classified 2.1%red 0.0%Covert 0.0%Ancient 0.0%#d32ce6 0.0%Legendary 0.5%pink 1.7%#8847ff 2.3%blue 15.1%Restricted 1.5%violet 8.7%#4b69ff 20.5%Mythical 5.1%restricted 7.1%mil spec 14.2%Rare 7.1%Mil Spec Grade 7.0%Uncommon 7.0%best hit —