Flip

A case on CSGORUN (knives2026), first seen 5 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORUN's own item price.

Price

$159.99

Advertised RTP

92.42%

EV $147.87 from 29 items

Observed RTP, 30d

134.44%

4 openings, odds method

Variance

0.2×

of price², per opening

Tail share

38.9%

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

73.3%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

2 openings · below min

7 days

4 openings · below min

30 days

4 openings · below min

since tracking started

4 openings · below min

92.0%168.0%244.0%

Small sample. 4 openings and 1.6 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	2	185.13%±58.2	—	odds
7d	4	134.44%±41.1	—	odds
30d	4	134.44%±41.1	—	odds
All	4	134.44%±41.1	—	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values29 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 4 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
★ Flip Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl)knife · covert · Black Pearl	1 in 6,329	$1,676	0.2%	0	0.0	—
★ Flip Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby)knife · covert · Ruby	1 in 7,692	$1,502	0.1%	0	0.0	—
★ Flip Knife \| Crimson Web (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 4,464	$1,150	0.2%	0	0.0	—
★ Flip Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire)knife · covert · Sapphire	1 in 1,818	$895	0.3%	0	0.0	—
★ Flip Knife \| Night (Factory New)knife · covert knife	1 in 707	$716	0.7%	0	0.0	—
★ Flip Knife \| Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Phase 2)knife · covert · Phase 2	1 in 313	$477	1.0%	0	0.0	—
★ Flip Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2)knife · covert · Phase 2	1 in 272	$465	1.2%	1	0.0	—
★ Flip Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 4)knife · covert · Phase 4	1 in 171	$381	1.5%	0	0.0	—
★ Flip Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 4)knife · covert · Phase 4	1 in 122	$343	1.9%	0	0.0	—
★ Flip Knife \| Doppler (Factory New)knife · sunny	1 in 87	$316	2.5%	0	0.0	—
★ Flip Knife \| Slaughter (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 65	$270	2.8%	0	0.1	—
★ Flip Knife \| Autotronic (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 38	$219	3.9%	0	0.1	—
★ Flip Knife \| Stained (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 46	$217	3.2%	0	0.1	—
★ Flip Knife \| Blue Steel (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 27	$194	4.9%	0	0.1	—
★ Flip Knife \| Case Hardened (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 29	$193	4.4%	0	0.1	—
★ Flip Knife \| Autotronic (Field-Tested)knife · covert	1 in 21	$169	5.5%	0	0.2	—
★ Flip Knife \| Ultraviolet (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 20	$160	5.3%	0	0.2	—
★ Flip Knife \| Black Laminate (Minimal Wear)knife · #ffd700	1 in 16	$144	6.0%	1	0.2	—
★ Flip Knife \| Damascus Steel (Field-Tested)knife · covert	1 in 16	$133	5.5%	0	0.2	—
★ Flip Knife \| Bright Water (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 16	$132	5.4%	0	0.2	—
★ Flip Knife \| Stained (Field-Tested)knife · covert	1 in 16	$128	5.3%	0	0.2	—
★ Flip Knife \| Forest DDPAT (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 16	$127	5.3%	1	0.2	—
★ Flip Knife \| Bright Water (Field-Tested)knife · covert	1 in 16	$124	5.1%	0	0.2	—
★ Flip Knife \| Urban Masked (Field-Tested)knife · covert knife	1 in 16	$124	5.1%	1	0.2	—
★ Flip Knife \| Boreal Forest (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 16	$122	5.0%	0	0.2	—
★ Flip Knife \| Scorched (Field-Tested)knife · covert	1 in 16	$112	4.6%	0	0.2	—
★ Flip Knife \| Forest DDPAT (Field-Tested)knife · covert	1 in 16	$106	4.4%	0	0.2	—
★ Flip Knife \| Boreal Forest (Field-Tested)knife · Covert	1 in 16	$106	4.4%	0	0.2	—
★ Flip Knife \| Safari Mesh (Field-Tested)knife · covert knife	1 in 16	$105	4.3%	0	0.2	—

Values are CSGORUN's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from csgorun:v1/box/flip/show, 11 Nov, 16:28 UTC.