Fracture
A case on CSGORUN (coll2026), first seen 5 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORUN's own item price.
Price
$2.49
Advertised RTP
91.32%
EV $2.27 from 36 items
Observed RTP, 30d
88.41%
147 openings, odds method
Variance
1.7×
of price², per opening
Tail share
22.3%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
66.6%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values36 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 276 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are CSGORUN's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
csgorun:v1/box/fracture/show, 11 Nov, 10:14 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 91.32%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 6 Nov, 05:23 UTC | $2.49 | 91.32% | 36 |
| 5 Nov, 23:09 UTC | $2.49 | 94.00% | 36 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 0.1%covert knife 0.1%Ancient 0.1%Legendary 19.1%#d32ee6 2.7%pink 4.4%Restricted 6.9%Mythical 18.0%violet 24.3%#8847ff 9.7%milspec 4.9%#4b69ff 4.9%Rare 4.9%best hit —