Ghosthouse

A case on CSGORUN (halloween2026), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORUN's own item price.

Price
$75.00
Advertised RTP
89.28%
EV $66.96 from 42 items
Observed RTP, 30d
84.97%
118 openings, odds method
Variance
0.8×
of price², per opening
Tail share
24.9%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
70.2%
of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
7 days
79 openings · below min
30 days
84.97%±16.23118 openings
since tracking started
84.97%±16.23118 openings
67.5%88.0%108.5%

Windowsthe test per window

WindowOpeningsObservedDev.Method
24h0———
7d7987.92%±19.8—odds
30d11884.97%±16.2−0.6σodds
All11884.97%±16.2−0.6σodds
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values42 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 118 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
ItemOddsValueEV shareObservedExpectedHot / cold
AWP | Gungnir (Field-Tested)weapon · covert1 in 333,333$8,5220.0%00.0—
AUG | Akihabara Accept (Factory New)weapon · covert1 in 83,333$3,4590.1%00.0—
★ Butterfly Knife | Marble Fade (Minimal Wear)knife · epic1 in 12,658$1,6350.2%00.0—
AK-47 | Gold Arabesque (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert1 in 8,333$1,5900.3%00.0—
★ Karambit | Marble Fade (Factory New)knife · covert1 in 4,016$1,0790.4%00.0—
★ Butterfly Knife | Black Laminate (Field-Tested)knife · gold1 in 942$6141.0%00.1—
★ Talon Knife | Marble Fade (Factory New)knife · epic1 in 660$5321.2%00.2—
★ Driver Gloves | Snow Leopard (Minimal Wear)gloves · extraordinary1 in 605$5311.3%00.2—
★ Skeleton Knife | Marble Fade (Factory New)knife · gold1 in 234$3572.3%10.5—
★ Driver Gloves | Black Tie (Minimal Wear)gloves · extraordinary1 in 158$2922.8%10.7—
★ Nomad Knife | Marble Fade (Factory New)knife · gold1 in 108$2373.3%01.10.00×
Desert Eagle | Golden Koi (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert1 in 80$1863.5%21.51.36×
M4A1-S | Printstream (Field-Tested)weapon · covert1 in 75$1743.5%11.60.64×
Tec-9 | Whiteout (Factory New)weapon · restricted1 in 60$1634.0%02.00.00×
★ Specialist Gloves | Marble Fade (Field-Tested)gloves · extraordinary1 in 50$1334.0%22.40.84×
★ Survival Knife | Marble Fade (Factory New)knife · gold1 in 40$1204.5%53.01.68×
M4A1-S | Mecha Industries (Field-Tested)weapon · covert1 in 35$1094.7%43.41.17×
M4A1-S | Golden Coil (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert1 in 25$91.525.5%54.71.06×
P2000 | Silver (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec1 in 42$88.803.2%32.81.06×
★ Shadow Daggers | Marble Fade (Factory New)knife · covert1 in 23$85.415.5%35.10.59×
XM1014 | Frost Borre (Field-Tested)weapon · mil spec1 in 20$75.285.5%105.81.72×
USP-S | Whiteout (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified1 in 18$70.145.9%56.70.75×
Desert Eagle | Printstream (Factory New)weapon · covert1 in 17$69.605.9%56.80.74×
★ Huntsman Knife | Black Laminate (Field-Tested)knife · sunny1 in 20$59.504.5%86.01.33×
MAC-10 | Gold Brick (Factory New)weapon · restricted1 in 19$58.284.6%56.20.81×
P250 | Whiteout (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec1 in 22$55.683.8%35.40.55×
AK-47 | Baroque Purple (Factory New)weapon · industrial1 in 23$47.773.1%55.10.97×
AWP | Printstream (Field-Tested)weapon · Ancient1 in 23$45.833.0%95.11.75×
AK-47 | Black Laminate (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec1 in 25$43.692.6%44.80.84×
P90 | Baroque Red (Factory New)weapon · mil spec1 in 27$35.281.9%64.31.39×
AK-47 | Phantom Disruptor (Factory New)weapon · classified1 in 40$33.481.2%22.90.68×
FAMAS | Mecha Industries (Minimal Wear)weapon · pink1 in 29$29.271.5%34.00.75×
Glock-18 | Gold Toof (Field-Tested)weapon · red1 in 29$28.081.5%64.11.45×
Desert Eagle | Mecha Industries (Factory New)weapon · classified1 in 32$23.401.1%33.60.82×
XM1014 | Elegant Vines (Minimal Wear)weapon · Mythical1 in 36$18.090.7%03.30.00×
Galil AR | Winter Forest (Field-Tested)weapon · industrial1 in 34$16.250.7%43.51.16×
P90 | Shapewood (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified1 in 55$11.140.3%22.20.93×
XM1014 | Bone Machine (Field-Tested)weapon · mil spec1 in 53$11.020.3%22.20.90×
AUG | Arctic Wolf (Factory New)weapon · restricted1 in 61$7.070.2%32.01.54×
Desert Eagle | Heirloom (Field-Tested)weapon · violet1 in 67$6.750.2%21.81.13×
M4A1-S | Black Lotus (Minimal Wear)weapon · Classified1 in 75$6.530.1%21.61.27×
USP-S | Royal Guard (Factory New)weapon · Mythical1 in 86$4.690.1%21.41.46×
Values are CSGORUN's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from csgorun:v1/box/ghosthouse/show, 8 Nov, 19:51 UTC.

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 89.28%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

CapturedPriceAdvertisedItems
4 Nov, 04:54 UTC$75.0089.28%42
3 Nov, 04:27 UTC$75.0091.74%42
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedcovert 19.6%epic 0.2%gold 4.0%extraordinary 2.8%restricted 8.6%mil spec 21.5%classified 13.1%sunny 5.1%industrial 7.3%Ancient 4.3%pink 3.4%red 3.5%Mythical 3.9%violet 1.5%Classified 1.3%best hit —