Gold
A case on CSGORUN (vipcases), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORUN's own item price.
Price
$296.78
Advertised RTP
88.61%
EV $262.97 from 22 items
Observed RTP, 30d
78.52%
38 openings, odds method
Variance
0.8×
of price², per opening
Tail share
21.6%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
69.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Small sample. 38 openings and 8.2 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values22 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 38 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are CSGORUN's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
csgorun:v1/box/gold/show, 11 Nov, 10:14 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 88.61%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 4 Nov, 04:54 UTC | $297 | 88.61% | 22 |
| 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $297 | 90.60% | 22 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcontraband 0.0%covert 37.1%legendary 9.7%#EB4B4B 0.9%remarkable 4.0%rare 9.3%gold 8.3%Covert 6.9%covert knife 6.9%industrial 6.2%classified 10.7%best hit $900 (3.03x)