Gold c

A case on CSGORUN (palette2026), first seen 5 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORUN's own item price.

Price
$12.99
Advertised RTP
94.00%
EV $12.21 from 34 items
Observed RTP, 30d
109.84%
166 openings, odds method
Variance
2.1×
of price², per opening
Tail share
17.3%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
72.1%
of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
24 hours
17 openings · below min
7 days
109.84%±22.27166 openings
30 days
109.84%±22.27166 openings
since tracking started
109.84%±22.27166 openings
3.0%73.3%143.5%

Windowsthe test per window

WindowOpeningsObservedDev.Method
24h1773.48%±69.6—odds
7d166109.84%±22.3+1.4σodds
30d166109.84%±22.3+1.4σodds
All166109.84%±22.3+1.4σodds
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values34 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 185 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
ItemOddsValueEV shareObservedExpectedHot / cold
AK-47 | Gold Arabesque (Factory New)weapon · covert1 in 125,000$1,8880.1%00.0—
AK-47 | Gold Arabesque (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert1 in 90,909$1,5900.1%00.0—
AK-47 | Gold Arabesque (Field-Tested)weapon · covert1 in 66,667$1,2530.2%00.0—
M4A1-S | Chantico's Fire (Factory New)weapon · covert1 in 4,673$2080.4%00.0—
M4A1-S | Golden Coil (Factory New)weapon · covert1 in 3,546$1870.4%00.1—
Desert Eagle | Golden Koi (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert1 in 2,710$1860.6%00.1—
Desert Eagle | Golden Koi (Factory New)weapon · covert1 in 3,195$1830.5%00.1—
M4A4 | Royal Paladin (Factory New)weapon · covert1 in 2,294$1590.6%00.1—
M4A1-S | Chantico's Fire (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert1 in 872$1201.1%00.2—
M4A1-S | Chantico's Fire (Field-Tested)weapon · covert1 in 812$1201.2%40.2—
Glock-18 | Gold Toof (Factory New)weapon · rare1 in 700$99.811.2%00.3—
M4A1-S | Golden Coil (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert1 in 354$91.522.1%00.5—
M4A4 | Royal Paladin (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert1 in 327$89.562.2%20.6—
Desert Eagle | Cobalt Disruption (Factory New)weapon · classified1 in 318$87.202.2%00.6—
M4A4 | Royal Paladin (Field-Tested)weapon · covert1 in 303$85.022.3%00.6—
M4A1-S | Golden Coil (Field-Tested)weapon · covert1 in 160$62.303.2%01.20.00×
MAC-10 | Gold Brick (Factory New)weapon · restricted1 in 132$58.283.6%31.42.14×
MAC-10 | Gold Brick (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted1 in 88$43.024.0%42.11.91×
MAC-10 | Gold Brick (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted1 in 48$32.215.5%03.80.00×
Glock-18 | Gold Toof (Minimal Wear)weapon · Ancient1 in 47$31.865.5%63.91.53×
Glock-18 | Royal Legion (Factory New)weapon · restricted1 in 50$29.394.8%13.70.27×
Glock-18 | Gold Toof (Field-Tested)weapon · red1 in 39$28.085.9%44.80.84×
Galil AR | Rainbow Spoon (Factory New)weapon · rare1 in 24$26.669.3%77.90.89×
Dual Berettas | Royal Consorts (Factory New)weapon · Mythical1 in 35$23.205.4%35.20.57×
UMP-45 | Gold Bismuth (Factory New)weapon · #8847ff1 in 13$14.389.2%1714.41.18×
AK-47 | Ice Coaled (Minimal Wear)weapon · Legendary1 in 12$7.955.3%1515.10.99×
Dual Berettas | Royal Consorts (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted1 in 12$7.805.2%1115.10.73×
UMP-45 | Gold Bismuth (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted1 in 12$6.544.4%1715.11.13×
USP-S | Royal Guard (Factory New)weapon · Mythical1 in 12$4.693.1%1315.10.86×
Glock-18 | Royal Legion (Minimal Wear)weapon · violet1 in 12$4.683.1%1915.11.26×
Dual Berettas | Royal Consorts (Field-Tested)weapon · violet1 in 12$4.112.7%1515.10.99×
UMP-45 | Gold Bismuth (Field-Tested)weapon · #8847ff1 in 12$2.531.7%1115.10.73×
Glock-18 | Royal Legion (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted1 in 12$2.321.6%1815.11.19×
USP-S | Royal Guard (Minimal Wear)weapon · Mythical1 in 15$2.291.3%1112.50.88×
Values are CSGORUN's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from csgorun:v1/box/gold_c/show, 11 Nov, 10:14 UTC.

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 94.00%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

CapturedPriceAdvertisedItems
5 Nov, 23:09 UTC$12.9994.00%34
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedcovert 1.9%rare 4.4%classified 0.3%restricted 30.5%Ancient 2.1%red 2.6%Mythical 17.7%#8847ff 16.0%Legendary 8.2%violet 16.3%best hit —