Gradient
A case on CSGORUN (oldcasesale), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORUN's own item price.
Price
$21.82
Advertised RTP
93.96%
EV $20.50 from 25 items
Observed RTP, 30d
89.96%
144 openings, odds method
Variance
1.4×
of price², per opening
Tail share
23.7%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
76.3%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values25 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 144 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are CSGORUN's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
csgorun:v1/box/gradient/show, 11 Nov, 16:28 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 93.96%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5 Nov, 23:09 UTC | $21.82 | 93.96% | 25 |
| 4 Nov, 04:54 UTC | $22.78 | 90.00% | 25 |
| 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $22.78 | 90.88% | 25 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedgold 0.0%Covert 2.6%sunny 1.0%epic 0.1%#ffd700 2.2%covert 7.1%mil spec 19.6%Ancient 6.0%milspec 8.1%Mil Spec Grade 9.2%industrial 8.2%pink 7.4%restricted 11.8%blue 5.9%Legendary 4.0%classified 3.4%#4b69ff 3.4%best hit —