Gradientcase
A case on CSGORUN (oldcasesale), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORUN's own item price.
Price
$24.37
Advertised RTP
93.97%
EV $22.90 from 45 items
Observed RTP, 30d
93.64%
209 openings, odds method
Variance
5.1×
of price², per opening
Tail share
13.2%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
86.8%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values45 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 209 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are CSGORUN's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
csgorun:v1/box/gradientcase/show, 11 Nov, 10:14 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 93.97%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5 Nov, 23:09 UTC | $24.37 | 93.97% | 45 |
| 4 Nov, 04:54 UTC | $25.76 | 88.90% | 45 |
| 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $25.76 | 91.04% | 45 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedepic 0.6%covert 2.1%legendary 0.1%restricted 20.5%Covert 0.0%#ffd700 0.0%extraordinary 0.1%gold 0.2%rare 1.7%classified 0.4%mil spec 27.9%Rare 12.8%#4b69ff 11.7%milspec 12.0%#4B69FF 9.9%best hit —