Heisenberg
A case on CSGORUN (oldcasesale), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORUN's own item price.
Price
$11.64
Advertised RTP
93.98%
EV $10.94 from 49 items
Observed RTP, 30d
90.00%
3 openings, odds method
Variance
1.5×
of price², per opening
Tail share
25.5%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
63.3%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Small sample. 3 openings and 0.8 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values49 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 3 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are CSGORUN's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
csgorun:v1/box/heisenberg/show, 11 Nov, 10:14 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 93.98%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5 Nov, 23:09 UTC | $11.64 | 93.98% | 49 |
| 4 Nov, 04:54 UTC | $11.98 | 91.32% | 49 |
| 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $11.98 | 92.59% | 49 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedlegendary 0.0%#ffd700 0.0%classified 7.4%covert 2.2%epic 0.0%mil spec 0.3%#4b69ff 7.9%restricted 16.2%#87c7ff 3.6%Legendary 5.2%Mythical 8.1%pink 9.1%Rare 9.0%industrial 5.8%consumer 4.6%#d32ce6 4.6%rare 4.4%violet 3.5%Uncommon 3.2%blueLight 1.8%blue 1.9%#8847ff 1.1%best hit —