Kitten
A case on CSGORUN (hype2026), first seen 5 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORUN's own item price.
Price
$0.99
Advertised RTP
94.00%
EV $0.93 from 40 items
Observed RTP, 30d
91.56%
33.6K openings, odds method
Variance
1.2×
of price², per opening
Tail share
23.9%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
59.6%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Outside band, 30 days. Advertised 89.24% sits outside the 95% band of the observed openings (90.44% – 92.68%, 33,603 openings, 30 days). The band comes from the site's own odds and values; the figure is a fact about these openings, not a verdict on the case.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values40 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 35.9K openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are CSGORUN's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
csgorun:v1/box/kitten/show, 11 Nov, 10:14 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 94.00%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5 Nov, 23:09 UTC | $0.99 | 94.00% | 40 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedextraordinary 0.0%sunny 0.0%covert 0.0%classified 0.1%Legendary 0.8%Rare 1.4%#4b69ff 6.0%#d32ce6 0.0%mil spec 6.4%pink 0.5%violet 22.0%Mil Spec Grade 0.9%restricted 8.4%Mythical 9.3%#8847ff 14.5%uncommon 6.0%blue 12.0%milspec 6.0%industrial 5.6%best hit $49.57 (50.07x)