Lucia
A case on CSGORUN (gta2026), first seen 5 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORUN's own item price.
Price
$24.99
Advertised RTP
94.00%
EV $23.49 from 40 items
Observed RTP, 30d
100.04%
674 openings, odds method
Variance
0.9×
of price², per opening
Tail share
24.8%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
58.4%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values40 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 713 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are CSGORUN's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
csgorun:v1/box/lucia/show, 11 Nov, 10:14 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 94.00%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5 Nov, 23:09 UTC | $24.99 | 94.00% | 40 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedrestricted 23.7%covert 4.0%epic 0.0%gold 0.1%rare 0.6%Ancient 0.6%classified 21.0%mil spec 18.1%Rare 7.3%Legendary 14.1%Mil Spec Grade 3.5%pink 3.5%#d32ee6 3.5%best hit —