M 9
A case on CSGORUN (knives2026), first seen 5 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORUN's own item price.
Price
$904.99
Advertised RTP
92.46%
EV $836.75 from 29 items
Observed RTP, 30d
97.46%
3 openings, odds method
Variance
0.3×
of price², per opening
Tail share
33.7%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
50.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Small sample. 3 openings and 1.0 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values29 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 3 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are CSGORUN's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
csgorun:v1/box/m9/show, 11 Nov, 10:14 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 92.46%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 6 Nov, 05:23 UTC | $905 | 92.46% | 29 |
| 5 Nov, 23:09 UTC | $905 | 94.00% | 29 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 52.4%Covert 14.2%Knives 2.2%covert knife 6.1%Immortal 3.3%#ffd700 7.4%sunny 11.1%knifes 3.3%best hit $1,394 (1.54x)