Naruto
A case on CSGORUN (oldcasesale), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORUN's own item price.
Price
$5.55
Advertised RTP
93.93%
EV $5.21 from 42 items
Observed RTP, 30d
74.19%
66 openings, odds method
Variance
2.4×
of price², per opening
Tail share
23.5%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
76.5%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Small sample. 66 openings and 15.6 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values42 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 66 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are CSGORUN's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
csgorun:v1/box/naruto/show, 11 Nov, 10:14 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 93.93%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5 Nov, 23:09 UTC | $5.55 | 93.93% | 42 |
| 4 Nov, 04:54 UTC | $5.77 | 90.35% | 42 |
| 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $5.77 | 92.35% | 42 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedepic 0.0%legendary 0.0%covert 0.1%extraordinary 0.0%classified 10.5%sunny 0.0%Immortal 0.0%#ffd700 0.1%pink 23.8%red 2.9%Ancient 1.2%uncommon 1.9%#8847ff 12.6%mil spec 7.0%milspec 6.2%Mythical 5.2%restricted 13.0%other 4.8%blue 4.6%#d32ce6 3.5%violet 2.6%best hit —