Nozhcase
A case on CSGORUN (oldcasesale), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORUN's own item price.
Price
$196.44
Advertised RTP
94.00%
EV $184.65 from 60 items
Observed RTP, 30d
65.69%
3 openings, odds method
Variance
1.2×
of price², per opening
Tail share
16.2%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
73.6%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Small sample. 3 openings and 0.5 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values60 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 3 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are CSGORUN's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
csgorun:v1/box/nozhcase/show, 11 Nov, 10:14 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 94.00%
No data in this window
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5 Nov, 23:09 UTC | $196 | 94.00% | 60 |
| 4 Nov, 04:54 UTC | $203 | 90.97% | 60 |
| 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $203 | 91.46% | 60 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedknifes 0.0%covert 57.0%sunny 3.8%#ffd700 0.2%gold 2.7%epic 3.0%rare 3.9%covert knife 28.9%legendary 0.6%best hit —