Oktoberfest
A case on CSGORUN (oldcasesale), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORUN's own item price.
Price
$20.51
Advertised RTP
93.96%
EV $19.27 from 49 items
Observed RTP, 30d
81.62%
31 openings, odds method
Variance
1.2×
of price², per opening
Tail share
22.2%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
58.3%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Small sample. 31 openings and 6.9 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values49 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 31 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are CSGORUN's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
csgorun:v1/box/oktoberfest/show, 11 Nov, 10:14 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 93.96%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5 Nov, 23:09 UTC | $20.51 | 93.96% | 49 |
| 4 Nov, 04:54 UTC | $20.86 | 92.38% | 49 |
| 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $20.86 | 90.77% | 49 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listed1 2.3%covert 1.2%legendary 0.0%Covert 0.0%extraordinary 0.0%#d32ee6 0.0%Remarkable 0.0%#B0C3D9 4.0%remarkable 0.1%Ancient 2.2%restricted 2.8%classified 11.6%industrial 10.3%violet 5.0%Rare 1.2%Mythical 3.1%Industrial Grade 7.5%mil spec 19.5%Mil Spec Grade 7.6%consumer 6.4%Restricted 4.5%#4b69ff 4.2%Uncommon 4.0%Mil Spec 2.7%best hit —