Orange
A case on CSGORUN (palette2026), first seen 5 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORUN's own item price.
Price
$2.49
Advertised RTP
94.00%
EV $2.34 from 40 items
Observed RTP, 30d
97.82%
2,940 openings, odds method
Variance
0.7×
of price², per opening
Tail share
26.0%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
50.6%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Outside band, 30 days. Advertised 94.00% sits outside the 95% band of the observed openings (94.78% – 100.85%, 2,940 openings, 30 days). The band comes from the site's own odds and values; the figure is a fact about these openings, not a verdict on the case.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values40 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 3,320 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are CSGORUN's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
csgorun:v1/box/orange/show, 11 Nov, 10:14 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 94.00%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5 Nov, 23:09 UTC | $2.49 | 94.00% | 40 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listed1 1.6%2 3.1%rare 0.0%covert 0.0%extraordinary 0.0%Ancient 0.0%pink 0.0%restricted 9.2%classified 14.2%blue 22.9%Legendary 4.5%Mythical 18.3%#8847ff 6.1%Rare 9.2%mil spec 6.1%violet 3.1%Consumer Grade 1.7%best hit —