Party
A case on CSGORUN (oldcasesale), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORUN's own item price.
Price
$0.08
Advertised RTP
89.96%
EV $0.07 from 42 items
Observed RTP, 30d
103.61%
34.5K openings, odds method
Variance
93.3×
of price², per opening
Tail share
20.6%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
76.3%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values42 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 34.5K openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are CSGORUN's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
csgorun:v1/box/party/show, 11 Nov, 10:14 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 89.96%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5 Nov, 23:09 UTC | $0.08 | 89.96% | 42 |
| 4 Nov, 04:54 UTC | $0.06 | 119.95% | 42 |
| 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $0.06 | 95.39% | 42 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listed3 0.0%#ffd700 0.0%covert 0.0%sunny 0.0%rare 0.0%classified 0.0%mil spec 0.0%#d32ee6 0.0%Legendary 0.0%#8847ff 0.7%violet 0.1%Mythical 0.6%restricted 0.1%Rare 10.7%blue 1.2%milspec 1.3%#4b69ff 1.2%#5e98d9 1.8%industrial 23.6%#87c7ff 10.6%other 8.7%Consumer Grade 8.7%consumer 22.9%gray 7.6%best hit —