Polish
A case on CSGORUN (chickens), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORUN's own item price.
Price
$11.37
Advertised RTP
97.25%
EV $11.06 from 49 items
Observed RTP, 30d
98.24%
172 openings, odds method
Variance
1.3×
of price², per opening
Tail share
20.3%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
62.7%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values49 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 172 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are CSGORUN's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
csgorun:v1/box/polish/show, 11 Nov, 10:14 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 97.25%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 4 Nov, 04:54 UTC | $11.37 | 97.25% | 49 |
| 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $11.37 | 97.61% | 49 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedCovert 0.2%classified 19.8%extraordinary 0.9%#ffd700 0.0%rare 0.0%covert 1.4%Immortal 0.5%covert knife 0.6%Ancient 0.9%mil spec 4.9%#d32ee6 2.0%red 1.3%Heavy 4.7%industrial 4.7%pink 9.3%Rare 4.7%uncommon 4.6%#8847ff 4.7%consumer 9.2%restricted 9.0%#d32ce6 4.5%Consumer Grade 4.5%#4b69ff 4.0%gray 3.5%best hit —