Revolver

A case on CSGORUN (coll2026), first seen 5 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORUN's own item price.

Price
$7.49
Advertised RTP
95.77%
EV $7.17 from 38 items
Observed RTP, 30d
109.17%
21 openings, odds method
Variance
1.3×
of price², per opening
Tail share
21.9%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
61.8%
of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
24 hours
8 openings · below min
7 days
21 openings · below min
30 days
21 openings · below min
since tracking started
21 openings · below min
18.5%98.3%178.0%

Small sample. 21 openings and 4.6 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.

Windowsthe test per window

WindowOpeningsObservedDev.Method
24h898.41%±79.2—odds
7d21109.17%±48.9—odds
30d21109.17%±48.9—odds
All21109.17%±48.9—odds
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values38 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 21 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
ItemOddsValueEV shareObservedExpectedHot / cold
★ Karambit | Forest DDPAT (Minimal Wear)knife · covert1 in 111,111$4280.1%00.0—
★ M9 Bayonet | Scorched (Minimal Wear)knife · covert knife1 in 66,667$3380.1%00.0—
★ Flip Knife | Stained (Factory New)knife · covert1 in 28,571$2170.1%00.0—
★ Flip Knife | Blue Steel (Minimal Wear)knife · covert1 in 15,873$1940.2%00.0—
★ Bayonet | Boreal Forest (Minimal Wear)knife · covert1 in 6,849$1460.3%00.0—
★ Gut Knife | Crimson Web (Minimal Wear)knife · covert1 in 3,236$1100.5%00.0—
R8 Revolver | Fade (Field-Tested)weapon · covert1 in 1,502$90.970.8%00.0—
M4A4 | Royal Paladin (Field-Tested)weapon · covert1 in 1,585$85.020.7%00.0—
★ Gut Knife | Stained (Field-Tested)knife · covert1 in 488$55.021.6%00.0—
★ Gut Knife | Safari Mesh (Minimal Wear)knife · #ffd7001 in 393$51.641.8%00.1—
★ Gut Knife | Scorched (Field-Tested)knife · covert1 in 360$48.561.9%00.1—
AK-47 | Point Disarray (Factory New)weapon · classified1 in 417$47.371.6%00.1—
★ Gut Knife | Safari Mesh (Field-Tested)knife · gold1 in 296$46.982.2%00.1—
G3SG1 | The Executioner (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified1 in 365$46.051.8%00.1—
P90 | Shapewood (Factory New)weapon · classified1 in 90$25.143.9%00.2—
AK-47 | Point Disarray (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified1 in 68$21.934.5%10.3—
AK-47 | Point Disarray (Field-Tested)weapon · classified1 in 30$13.826.3%20.7—
R8 Revolver | Crimson Web (Factory New)weapon · mil spec1 in 17$11.949.8%21.21.62×
Five-SeveN | Retrobution (Factory New)weapon · restricted1 in 27$11.245.8%00.8—
P90 | Shapewood (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified1 in 21$11.147.3%21.0—
Tec-9 | Avalanche (Factory New)weapon · restricted1 in 20$9.566.7%21.11.90×
G3SG1 | The Executioner (Field-Tested)weapon · classified1 in 18$9.467.5%21.21.68×
P90 | Shapewood (Field-Tested)weapon · classified1 in 18$9.197.3%01.20.00×
Negev | Power Loader (Factory New)weapon · #8847ff1 in 12$7.268.2%21.71.17×
PP-Bizon | Fuel Rod (Factory New)weapon · restricted1 in 26$4.292.3%00.8—
SG 553 | Tiger Moth (Factory New)weapon · #8847ff1 in 26$4.072.2%20.8—
Tec-9 | Avalanche (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted1 in 26$4.032.2%10.8—
Negev | Power Loader (Minimal Wear)weapon · violet1 in 26$3.712.0%00.8—
XM1014 | Teclu Burner (Factory New)weapon · Mythical1 in 26$3.692.0%10.8—
Five-SeveN | Retrobution (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted1 in 26$2.791.5%00.8—
SG 553 | Tiger Moth (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted1 in 26$2.231.2%00.8—
XM1014 | Teclu Burner (Minimal Wear)weapon · #8847ff1 in 26$2.211.2%10.8—
PP-Bizon | Fuel Rod (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted1 in 26$2.151.1%10.8—
Tec-9 | Avalanche (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted1 in 26$1.791.0%10.8—
AUG | Ricochet (Factory New)weapon · mil spec1 in 26$1.430.8%00.8—
Sawed-Off | Yorick (Factory New)weapon · #4b69ff1 in 26$1.410.8%10.8—
XM1014 | Teclu Burner (Field-Tested)weapon · 31 in 26$1.180.6%00.8—
Desert Eagle | Corinthian (Factory New)weapon · mil spec1 in 26$0.970.5%00.8—
Values are CSGORUN's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from csgorun:v1/box/revolver/show, 11 Nov, 10:14 UTC.

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 95.77%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

CapturedPriceAdvertisedItems
6 Nov, 05:23 UTC$7.4995.77%38
5 Nov, 23:09 UTC$7.4994.00%38
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed3 3.8%covert 0.7%covert knife 0.0%#ffd700 0.3%classified 22.4%gold 0.3%mil spec 13.5%restricted 31.7%#8847ff 15.8%violet 3.8%Mythical 3.8%#4b69ff 3.8%best hit —