Sashagray
A case on CSGORUN (oldcasesale), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORUN's own item price.
Price
$12.25
Advertised RTP
93.99%
EV $11.51 from 49 items
Observed RTP, 30d
88.64%
64 openings, odds method
Variance
9.1×
of price², per opening
Tail share
18.2%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
77.7%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Small sample. 64 openings and 11.7 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values49 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 64 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are CSGORUN's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
csgorun:v1/box/sashagray/show, 11 Nov, 10:14 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 93.99%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5 Nov, 23:09 UTC | $12.25 | 93.99% | 49 |
| 4 Nov, 04:54 UTC | $12.32 | 93.46% | 49 |
| 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $12.32 | 95.66% | 49 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedlegendary 0.0%covert 2.0%covert knife 0.0%extraordinary 0.8%Covert 1.5%restricted 18.9%#ffd700 0.0%classified 28.9%#4b69ff 0.9%pink 1.6%mil spec 6.7%#d32ee6 8.6%Mythical 10.3%Legendary 10.9%violet 4.7%uncommon 4.2%best hit —